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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 21
2020-09-16 10:54:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 160854 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...SALLY'S NORTHERN EYEWALL WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST FROM PENSACOLA BEACH FLORIDA WESTWARD TO DAUPHIN ISLAND ALABAMA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 87.7W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning from the Mississippi/Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the Pearl River. The Tropical Storm Warning west of the Mouth of the Pearl River has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from the Mississippi/Alabama border to Fort Morgan, including portions of Mobile Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Fort Morgan Alabama to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Sally was located an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 87.7 West. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast this morning, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area later today. Sally is then expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama tonight. Recent data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and the Mobile Alabama Doppler weather radar indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight increase in strength is possible before the center of Sally's eye makes landfall later this morning. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall occurs. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 98 mph (157 km/h) and a gust to 116 mph (187 km/h) were recently measured by an elevated NOS CO-OP observing station in Fort Morgan, Alabama. A University of Florida weather tower located at Gulf Shores, Alabama, reported a sustained wind speed of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a gust to 93 mph (150 km/h). NOAA buoy 42012, located about 50 miles southeast of Mobile, Alabama, recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (115 km/h) and a pressure of 970.9 mb inside the eastern portion of Sally's eye. The estimated minimum central pressure based on the buoy data is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10 to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches is expected. Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major river flooding. Sally is forecast to turn northeastward after making landfall today and move across the Southeast through Friday, producing the following rainfall totals: Southern and central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river flooding. Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island AL to Okaloosa/Walton County FL Line...4-7 ft Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay FL...4-7 ft Mobile Bay...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Walton/Bay County line FL...2-4 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island AL...2-4 ft Walton/Bay County line to Chassahowitzka FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 21
2020-09-16 10:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160853 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO FORT MORGAN...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FORT MORGAN ALABAMA TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 87.7W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB EYE DIAMETER 30 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 25SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 135SE 90SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 87.7W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 87.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.7N 87.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 86.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.6N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 82.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 34.1N 79.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.1N 87.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 16
2020-09-16 10:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 160834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY NOW A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE, FORECAST TO BECOME A CATEGORY 4 LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 49.0W ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 49.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Teddy is likely to become a major hurricane later today and could reach category 4 strength on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America today should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 16
2020-09-16 10:34:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 160834 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 49.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT.......140NE 80SE 40SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 270SE 240SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 49.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 48.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 50.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 51.5W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N 52.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.3N 54.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 130SE 90SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.7N 56.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.2N 57.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 160SE 110SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 27.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 31.0N 64.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 49.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 38
2020-09-16 10:29:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160829 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.9N 49.1W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 49.1 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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