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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 8
2020-09-16 04:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 160230 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.1W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 33.1W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 32.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.0N 34.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 36.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 22.4N 38.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.3N 39.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.5N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 33.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 18A
2020-09-16 01:54:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 152354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.6N 88.0W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis Mississippi to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis Mississippi westward to Grand Isle Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NOAA Doppler radar near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 88.0 West. Sally is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected tonight, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A slightly faster northeastward motion is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs, and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust to 70 mph (113 km/h) were recently reported at Petit Bois Island, Mississippi. A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h) were recently reported on Dauphin Island, Alabama. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 975 mb (28.79 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrews Bay...1-3 ft Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and will continue through Wednesday night. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-15 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 152038 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...COOLER WATERS WILL SOON WEAKEN KARINA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 122.1W ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 122.1 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Some slowing in forward speed and a turn toward the west and southwest is expected thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin by tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a remnant low in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Birchard
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 18
2020-09-15 22:38:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 152038 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...HISTORIC LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.5N 88.1W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MOBILE ALABAMA ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM SW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Bay St. Louis to Navarre Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Bay St. Louis westward to Grand Isle Louisiana A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 88.1 West. Sally is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow northward motion is expected tonight, followed by a slow north-northeastward to northeastward motion on Wednesday and Wednesday night. A slightly faster northeastward motion is expected on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area late tonight or Wednesday. Sally is expected to move inland across southeastern Alabama Wednesday night and Thursday. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and NWS Doppler radar indicates that maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until landfall occurs and Sally is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it moves onshore along the north-central Gulf Coast. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A NOAA buoy located about 50 miles (80 km) southeast of Mobile, Alabama, recently reported sustained winds of 58 mph (94 km/h) and a gust to 67 mph (108 km/h) within the past couple of hours. An observing site at the Okaloosa Fishing Pier in Florida has reported sustained winds of 44 mph (70 km/h) and a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally is forecast to produce 10 to 20 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 30 inches along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River to far southeastern Mississippi. Historic life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track across the Southeast producing rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches, across portions of southeastern Mississippi, southern and central Alabama, central and northern Georgia, and the western Carolinas. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft MS/AL Border to Dauphin Island, AL...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...3-5 ft Mouth of the Pearl River to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrews Bay...1-3 ft Grand Isle, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area this evening. Tropical storm conditions are already occurring in portions of the warning areas, and will continue through Wednesday night. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur this evening through Wednesday across portions of the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-09-15 22:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 152038 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 2100 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS TO NAVARRE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * BAY ST. LOUIS WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 88.1W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 88.1W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 88.1W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.9N 88.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.6N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 31.5N 86.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.5N 85.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.1N 83.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 33.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 88.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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