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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 18
2020-09-16 22:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 162051 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...TEDDY TAKES A BREAK FROM STRENGTHENING TODAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY MORE SOON... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 50.8W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 50.8 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Teddy is expected become a major hurricane during that time. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are reaching the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda by Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-09-16 22:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 162050 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 50.8W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 90NW. 34 KT.......190NE 100SE 70SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 50.8W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 50.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 52.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 90NW. 34 KT...180NE 110SE 70SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 53.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 80SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 54.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 56.3W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...170NE 150SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.8N 58.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 60.2W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 29.5N 63.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 64.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 50.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 11
2020-09-16 22:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 162043 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 500 PM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...VICKY HEADING WEST OVER THE OPEN EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 35.7W ABOUT 855 MI...1375 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 35.7 West. Vicky is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) , and a westward motion is expected to continue through late Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Vicky is expected to become a tropical depression Thursday, weaken to a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-09-16 22:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 162043 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 2100 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 35.7W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 20SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 35.7W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 35.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.6N 37.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 21.3N 38.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 20.6N 40.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.8N 42.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 35.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 23
2020-09-16 22:40:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 162040 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM SALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.2N 86.8W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NNE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM W OF DOTHAN ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast of Alabama has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border eastward to Indian Pass Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 86.8 West. Sally is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected tonight through Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across southeastern Alabama tonight, over central Georgia on Thursday, and move over South Carolina Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected as the center moves farther inland tonight, and Sally is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight or Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Sally has produced storm totals of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of 30-35 inches, across the central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west of Tallahassee to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Historic and catastrophic flooding, including widespread moderate to major river flooding, will continue across this region. Additional rainfall of 1 to 4 inches is possible across the Florida Panhandle from Tallahassee to the Apalachicola River. Rainfall totals expected as Sally tracks across the Southeast through Friday: Southern Alabama and central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches with isolated amounts of 12 inches, resulting in significant flash flooding and widespread minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding. Central to upstate South Carolina: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated amounts of 10 inches. Widespread flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding is possible. Western to central North Carolina and far southeast Virginia: 4 to 6 inches, isolated amounts up to 8 inches. Scattered flash flooding and widespread minor river flooding is possible. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... AL/FL Border to Walton/Bay County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...2-4 ft Walton/Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning area tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur this afternoon and tonight across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia. The threat of tornadoes will shift northeastward into parts of eastern Georgia and much of the Carolinas on Thursday. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the Gulf Coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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