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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 161435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...KARINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 123.9W ABOUT 890 MI...1435 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 123.9 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn back toward the west-northwest is forecast today. A slower westward motion is expected toward the end of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Karina is expected to become a remnant low by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 15
2020-09-16 16:36:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.9W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.9W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 123.6W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 123.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-16 16:33:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 161433 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020 ...VICKY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 34.7W ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 34.7 West. Vicky is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a westward motion is expected to continue through late Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin by Friday and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Vicky is expected to become a tropical depression Thursday, weaken to a remnant low on Friday, and dissipate Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Vicky Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-16 16:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161432 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM VICKY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 34.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 21.6N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 21.7N 37.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.5N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.0N 41.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 42.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 34.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 21A
2020-09-16 13:59:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 161159 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 21A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2020 ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURRING IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.4N 87.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NNE OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Dauphin Island, Alabama. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Dauphin Island Alabama to the Walton/Bay County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of the Okaloosa/Walton County line Florida to Indian Pass Florida * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 12 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should have been completed. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are occurring within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Sally was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 87.6 West. Sally is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected later today and tonight, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move across the extreme western Florida panhandle and southeastern Alabama through early Thursday, and move over central Georgia Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Doppler weather radar data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected as the center moves inland today and tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). A sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust to 92 mph (148 km/h) were recently reported at the Pensacola Naval Air Station in Pensacola, Florida. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 967 mb (28.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml RAINFALL: Through this afternoon, Sally will produce additional rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with localized higher amounts possible along and just inland of the central Gulf Coast from west of Tallahassee, Florida to Mobile Bay, Alabama. Storm totals of 10 to 20 inches to isolated amounts of 35 inches is expected. Historic and catastrophic flooding is unfolding. In addition, this rainfall will lead to widespread moderate to major river flooding. Sally is forecast to turn northeastward after making landfall today and move across the Southeast through Friday, producing the following rainfall totals: Southern and central Alabama to central Georgia: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Western South Carolina into western and central North Carolina: 4 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches. Widespread flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to moderate river flooding. Southeast Virginia: 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. Scattered flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as scattered minor river flooding. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... AL/FL Border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL including Pensacola Bay and Choctawhatchee Bay...4-7 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line, FL to Walton Bay County Line, FL...2-4 ft Dauphin Island, AL to AL/FL Border including Bon Secour Bay...2-4 ft Walton Bay County Line, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL including Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida and Alabama. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the warning areas through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur today and tonight across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect the coast from the Florida Big Bend westward to southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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