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Hurricane Sally Forecast Advisory Number 19

2020-09-16 04:55:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 160255 TCMAT4 HURRICANE SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EAST OF NAVARRE FLORIDA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA. THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED BETWEEN THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER AND THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE WALTON/BAY COUNTY LINE FLORIDA * MOBILE BAY * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 87.8W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 87.8W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 88.0W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 87.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 16/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 13

2020-09-16 04:36:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 160236 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI 0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 123.0W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 123.0W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 122.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 124.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 23.0N 125.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.4N 126.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 23.5N 127.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 123.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BIRCHARD

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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 13

2020-09-16 04:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 160235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 15 2020 ...KARINA HANGING ON BUT WILL SOON WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 123.0W ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 21.3 North, longitude 123.0 West. Karina is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue into Wednesday. Some slowing in forward speed and a turn toward the west and southwest is expected thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening should begin tonight, and Karina is forecast to become a remnant low in two or three days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Birchard

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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 37

2020-09-16 04:34:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160234 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 52.4W ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 52.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Wednesday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east coast of the United States through Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm Vicky Public Advisory Number 8

2020-09-16 04:30:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160230 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vicky Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020 ...VICKY REFUSES TO WEAKEN DESPITE THE SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.6N 33.1W ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 33.1 West. Vicky is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general motion is expected overnight, followed by a westward motion starting late Wednesday, and a west-southwestward motion by late Thursday. Satellite-derived winds indicate that xaximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is still forecast over the next few days, and the system could become a remannt low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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