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Tropical Storm Teddy Public Advisory Number 7

2020-09-14 11:17:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140917 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Teddy Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM TEDDY... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE LATER THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 40.4W ABOUT 1110 MI...1785 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1405 MI...2260 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 40.4 West. Teddy is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Storm Teddy are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 7

2020-09-14 11:17:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140917 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 40.4W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 210SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 40.4W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.8N 42.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 44.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.0N 46.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.9N 48.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.9N 49.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.3N 50.8W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 21.0N 53.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 23.9N 55.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 40.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 11

2020-09-14 10:53:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140853 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 400 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...OUTER RAIN BANDS APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SALLY LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 87.3W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 87.3 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, and approach southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Navarre including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Navarre to Chassahowitzka including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are expected within the warning area beginning this morning. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system as it approaches land producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina Thursday into Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of Alabama, and will be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 11

2020-09-14 10:52:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140852 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 20SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 87.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 86.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 28.6N 88.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 29.1N 88.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.7N 89.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.6N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 90SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.6N 88.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 32.5N 87.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 87.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 30

2020-09-14 10:50:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140850 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...ENTIRE ISLAND OF BERMUDA INSIDE HURRICANE PAULETTE'S EYE... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHORTLY DUE TO PAULETTE'S SOUTHERN EYEWALL... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.3N 64.7W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should continue early this morning. A turn toward the north is expected by late morning and continue into this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and continue through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Paulette will continue to pass over Bermuda during the next couple of hours, followed by passage of the southern portion of the eyewall. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Although winds have subsided across much of Bermuda due to Paulette's eye passage, hurricane-force winds will return shortly when the southern portion of Paulette's eyewall passes over the island. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into the early afternoon across the entire island. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations on Bermuda is 973 mb (28.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Although most of Bermuda is currently inside Paulette's eye where much weaker winds exist, hurricane conditions will return to Bermuda from the south and southwest when the southern eyewall passes over the island in a couple of hours. Hurricane conditions should subside around mid-morning, but tropical storm conditions will persist into late-morning and possibly early afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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