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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 29A
2020-09-14 07:56:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140556 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 29A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 200 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF PAULETTE MOVING ONSHORE BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS RAKING BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 64.4W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bermuda radar near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Paulette is forecast to continue moving northwestward this morning and then turn northward by this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected this afternoon through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Paulette will pass over Bermuda within the next few hours. Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast as Paulette moves closer to Bermuda this morning and continuing into the afternoon. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Winds have steadily increased on Bermuda during the past few hours and will continue to increase this morning. An observing station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently reported a wind gust to 96 mph (155 km/h). A weather observing station at Pearl Island reported a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h) while a reporting station at the Bermuda Heliport measured a wind gust to 72 mph (116 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the hurricane hunter plane is 973 mb (28.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and winds will steadily increase this morning. Hurricane conditions are expected to each Bermuda during the next 2 to 3 hours and will continue into early afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 10A
2020-09-14 07:35:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 140535 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 100 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY FORECAST TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 86.9W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM S OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 86.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower west- northwestward motion is expected soon, followed by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, and approach the northern Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area tonight and on Tuesday. Sally is expected to move slowly northward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are expected within the warning area beginning this morning. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast today into Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16 inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. This rainfall will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible across much of inland Mississippi and Alabama. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers in Mississippi and Alabama. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across central and northern Florida through today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase this afternoon and continue through Tuesday over parts of the western Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-14 04:54:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 543 WTNT34 KNHC 140254 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...SALLY FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.2N 86.2W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning has been extended eastward from Ocean Springs Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama Border. A Storm Surge Warning has been extended eastward from the Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida Border, including Mobile Bay. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.2 North, longitude 86.2 West. Sally is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower west- northwestward motion is expected Monday and Monday night, followed by a further decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday, and approach the northern Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Sally is expected to move slowly northward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday night, with some additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km), from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...3-5 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area tonight, and are expected within the warning area beginning Monday. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast Monday into Wednesday. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 8 to 16 inches with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week. This rainfall will likely result in new widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to turn inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible across much of inland Mississippi and Alabama. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers in Mississippi and Alabama. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across central and northern Florida through Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: The risk of isolated tornadoes will begin to increase Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday over parts of the western Florida Panhandle, southern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Sally Forecast Advisory Number 10
2020-09-14 04:53:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 140253 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM SALLY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER. A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING MOBILE BAY. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE * MOBILE BAY A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INDIAN PASS TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER FLORIDA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 86.2W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 110SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 86.2W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 87.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.0N 88.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.4N 89.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 30.3N 89.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 110SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.2N 89.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 32.1N 88.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 33.6N 85.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 86.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 6
2020-09-14 04:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140248 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 39.0W ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 39.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A continued west-northwestward motion is expected for the next day or two followed by a turn toward the northwest by mid-week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is anticipated and the system is forecast to become a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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