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Tropical Depression Twenty Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-13 22:33:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 132033 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 37.6W ABOUT 940 MI...1510 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1600 MI...2570 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 37.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the west or west-northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic is expected through Tuesday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Tuesday night and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight and then will likely strengthen to a hurricane on Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Tropical Depression Twenty are expected to reach the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America on Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-13 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 37.6W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 37.6W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 37.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 39.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.6N 42.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.1N 44.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.7N 46.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 47.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.8N 49.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 37.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 27A
2020-09-13 19:53:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131753 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 27A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 200 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...CORE OF PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA MONDAY MORNING... ...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN THERE BY THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 62.6W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 62.6 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a minimum central pressure of 978 mb (28.88 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-09-13 19:44:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 475 WTNT34 KNHC 131744 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 200 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...SALLY CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 85.5W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.48 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Ocean Springs to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Ocean Springs to Indian Pass * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 85.5 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through Monday. A decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the north- northwest is forecast on Monday night, and slow north-northwestward motion is expected Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and approach the north-central Gulf Coast within the hurricane warning area late Monday and Monday night. Sally is expected to move farther inland over southeastern Louisiana or southern Mississippi on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane on Monday, with some additional strengthening possible before landfall Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) primarily to the east of the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 998 mb (29.48 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area starting late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area and expected within the warning area beginning Monday. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across southwestern Florida with isolated amounts of 6 inches along that coast through Monday. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across west-central Florida. Sally is expected to be a slow moving system resulting in significant flash flooding for the central Gulf Coast through the middle of the week. Sally is expected to produce rainfall of 6 to 12 inches with isolated amounts of 20 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana from Monday through the middle of the week. Sally is forecast to turn inland Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 4 to 8 inches possible farther inland across much of Mississippi and Alabama with further heavy rain anticipated for portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as minor to isolated moderate flooding on rivers for Mississippi and Alabama. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible for portions of Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina. SURF: Swells from Sally are affecting the west coast of the Florida peninsula, the coast of the Florida Panhandle, and will be spreading northwestward along the northern Gulf coast through tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Rene Public Advisory Number 26
2020-09-13 17:01:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 131501 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Rene Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...POORLY ORGANIZED RENE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 47.6W ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 47.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected by tonight. By late Monday through Tuesday, the system is forecast to move southwestward. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Rene should slowly weaken over the next couple of days and is forecast to become a remnant low on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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