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Tropical Depression Twenty Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-09-14 04:48:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140248 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 39.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 39.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 38.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.5N 41.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.9N 43.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.4N 45.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 47.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 48.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 70SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.2N 50.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.0N 52.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 23.0N 55.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 39.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 29
2020-09-14 04:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 140246 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020 ...EYE AND EYEWALL OF PAULETTE NEARING BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 64.0W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Paulette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Paulette is forecast to continue moving northwestward overnight and then turn northward on Monday. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected late Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track the eye of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda early Monday morning. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast as Paulette moves closer to Bermuda overnight and early Monday. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Winds have steadily increased on Bermuda during the past few hours and will continue to increase during the next few hours. An unofficial observing station at Cedarvale South recently reported a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). An automated station at Cresent reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h), and another station at Pearl Island reported a gust of 70 mph (112 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the hurricane hunter plane is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and winds will steadily increase tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach Bermuda overnight and will continue into Monday morning. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 29
2020-09-14 04:46:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 140246 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.0W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 240SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.0W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 63.6W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.9N 63.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.1N 60.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.3N 55.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.6N 49.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.8N 44.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 37.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 43.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 64.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm Karina Public Advisory Number 5
2020-09-14 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 140231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karina Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162020 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 13 2020 ...KARINA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 117.1W ABOUT 565 MI...915 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karina was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 117.1 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast in the next 24 hours, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm Karina Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-09-14 04:31:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 140231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162020 0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 117.1W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 100SE 130SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 117.1W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 18.7N 118.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 110SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.4N 119.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 20.2N 121.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 21.0N 122.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 22.3N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 22.5N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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