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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-09-14 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141450 TCMAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ON BERMUDA IN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 64.8W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 64.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.1N 63.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. 34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.5N 59.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.1N 54.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.9N 47.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.5N 41.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.1N 36.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. 34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.5N 33.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 40.1N 32.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 64.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 30A
2020-09-14 13:57:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 717 WTNT32 KNHC 141157 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 30A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 800 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA... ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL AFFECTING THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 64.7W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected soon and should continue into this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and should continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). Hurricane-force winds are returning as the southern portion of Paulette's eyewall continues to move over the island. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into the early afternoon across the entire island. The estimated minimum central pressure based on hurricane hunter aircraft and surface observations on Bermuda is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are returning to Bermuda from the south and southwest as the southern eyewall passes over the island soon. Hurricane conditions should subside around mid-morning, but tropical storm conditions will persist into late-morning and possibly early afternoon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. The final Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued at 900 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Sally Public Advisory Number 11A
2020-09-14 13:56:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141156 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Intermediate Advisory Number 11A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 700 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIKELY TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STARTING LATE TODAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 87.4W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 87.4 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion is expected today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn to the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana this afternoon, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. NOAA buoy 42039, located about 130 miles (215 km) south-southeast of Pensacola, Florida, recently reported peak sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-6 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Port Fourchon to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Navarre including Pensacola Bay...2-4 ft Navarre to Chassahowitzka including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point to Port Fourchon...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area starting late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area during the next few hours, and are expected within the warning area beginning this morning. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow-moving system as it approaches land producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast to move farther inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western North Carolina Thursday into Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one Public Advisory Number 1
2020-09-14 11:47:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 140947 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-One Special Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL212020 900 AM CVT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CVT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 28.3W ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CVT (1000 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-One was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 28.3 West. The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue into this afternoon, followed by a turn toward the northwest tonight, with a west-northwestward motion expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening could occur today and tonight, and the depression could briefly become a tropical storm during that time. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night, if not sooner, and continue into Wednesday and Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT. $$ Forecaster Stewart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Twenty-one Forecast Advisory Number 1
2020-09-14 11:47:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 WTNT21 KNHC 140947 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212020 1000 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 28.3W AT 14/1000Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 28.3W AT 14/1000Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 28.2W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 19.6N 28.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 20.5N 29.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 21.3N 30.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.9N 32.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.4N 34.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 22.8N 36.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 23.4N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 28.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
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