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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 271450 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...ISELLE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 115.8W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 115.8 West. Iselle is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the north then northwest is forecast to occur on Saturday and Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days. Iselle is expected to begin weakening late this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 5
2020-08-27 16:50:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 271450 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.8W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 90SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 150SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.8W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 115.9W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 70SE 80SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 18.9N 114.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.2N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.2N 115.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.3N 117.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 31
2020-08-27 16:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271448 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA... ...HIGH WATER LEVELS PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 93.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Sabine Pass, Texas and east of Port Fourchon, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass Texas to Port Fourchon Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located inland over northwestern Louisiana near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 93.1 West. Laura is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion should continue through today. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will move northward across northern Louisiana this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to become a tropical storm withing the next few hours, and weaken to a tropical depression tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf Coast and will continue to subside over the next few hours. WIND: Damaging wind gusts and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread into portions of northern Louisiana and Arkansas through this evening. RAINFALL: Through Friday Laura is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas, with isolated storm totals of 18 inches over Louisiana. This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi Valley, portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. The risk for tornadoes will shift into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions on Friday into Friday night. SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-08-27 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271447 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF SABINE PASS... TEXAS AND EAST OF PORT FOURCHON...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TEXAS TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 93.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 93.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.9N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.8N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.0N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.7N 74.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.8N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 50.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 53.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 93.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 6
2020-08-27 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 271447 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 AM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...HERNAN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.1N 106.2W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 106.2 West. Hernan is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the northwest along with an increase in forward speed is expected to occur by tonight. A turn to the west is forecast this weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Hernan, along with the strongest winds and heaviest rains, is expected to remain just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Iselle is expected to begin weakening on Friday, and the system is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday and be absorbed by the circulation of Hernan to its west on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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