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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 16
2021-10-03 10:43:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 540 WTNT35 KNHC 030843 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 ...VICTOR REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 39.9W ABOUT 1055 MI...1700 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 39.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity could occur today. However, gradual weakening is forecast to begin by tonight and continue for the next few days, with Victor becoming a remnant low during that time. The system is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 16
2021-10-03 10:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030840 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 39.9W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 45SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 39.9W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 39.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.6N 41.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.6N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.3N 45.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.8N 47.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.3N 49.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 39.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Victor Public Advisory Number 15
2021-10-03 04:44:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 030244 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Victor Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...VICTOR STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 38.9W ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Victor was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 38.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Victor could become a remnant low during that time. The system is then forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). NOAA moored ocean buoy 13008 recently reported a sea level pressure of 1006.7 mb (29.73 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-10-03 04:40:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 030240 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 0300 UTC SUN OCT 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.9W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.9W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 38.4W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.3N 40.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 42.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.3N 44.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.8N 46.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 23.2N 48.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 38.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 42
2021-10-03 04:37:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 030237 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...SAM GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.4N 57.1W ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM NE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 36.4 North, longitude 57.1 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general track with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Sam will move well southeast and east of Newfoundland over the North Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are now near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further slow weakening is anticipated during the next few days, and Sam could transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Monday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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