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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 40
2021-10-02 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 021449 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...STEADFAST SAM MAINTAINING CATEGORY 4 WINDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.9N 59.3W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ENE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 59.3 West. Sam is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). This general track with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next few days. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 36 hours, followed by more significant weakening early next week. Sam could become a powerful post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Sam is becoming a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Sam Forecast Advisory Number 40
2021-10-02 16:48:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 196 WTNT23 KNHC 021448 TCMAT3 HURRICANE SAM FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 59.3W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 55NE 45SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT.......150NE 210SE 130SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 280SE 300SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 59.3W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 59.8W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 35.6N 57.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 37.4N 55.3W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...160NE 210SE 170SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 39.2N 52.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...170NE 210SE 190SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 41.8N 47.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...190NE 240SE 270SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 50.0N 38.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 100SE 90SW 60NW. 34 KT...240NE 340SE 410SW 310NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 53.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 59.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 59.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm Victor Public Advisory Number 13
2021-10-02 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021447 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Victor Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 1100 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...VICTOR BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 37.2W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Victor was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 37.2 West. Victor is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Victor could become a remnant low by tonight. The system is then forecast to dissipate by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Victor Forecast Advisory Number 13
2021-10-02 16:47:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021447 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM VICTOR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202021 1500 UTC SAT OCT 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 37.2W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 60SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 150SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 37.2W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 36.7W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.1N 38.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 15.9N 40.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.0N 42.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 44.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.6N 46.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 37.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Sam Public Advisory Number 39
2021-10-02 10:43:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 158 WTNT33 KNHC 020842 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Sam Advisory Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 500 AM AST Sat Oct 02 2021 ...SAM NOW MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR THE ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.8N 60.5W ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM E OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Sam was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 60.5 West. Sam is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northeast is expected by tonight, with an increase in forward speed forecast through Monday. On the forecast track, Sam will continue to move away from Bermuda. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Sam is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Sam is expected to remain a major hurricane through today or tonight. Sam is likely to become a hurricane-force post-tropical low by Monday night or early Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). Several automated stations on Bermuda have recently reported wind gusts near 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sam can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. WIND: A few wind gusts to tropical storm force will still be possible on Bermuda this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda during the next couple of days. Swells are expected to reach the United States east coast and Atlantic Canada today. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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