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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-10-10 10:52:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 100852 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 34(64) X(64) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) X(28) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 38(65) X(65) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) X(29) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) X(24) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) LOS MOCHIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) X(58) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 18(21) 24(45) X(45) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 55(63) X(63) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) X(29) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) X(19) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) X(11) 15N 105W 34 40 15(55) 1(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 105W 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) 4(27) X(27) X(27) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) 62(85) 3(88) X(88) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 5(58) X(58) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 6(35) X(35) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) 39(76) 1(77) X(77) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) X(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 1(19) X(19) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162021)
2021-10-10 10:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...STRENGTHENING FORECAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 14.3, -102.9 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2021-10-10 10:52:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100851 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 400 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EAST PACIFIC... ...STRENGTHENING FORECAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 102.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SSE OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SSE OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 102.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A gradual slowdown in forward motion with a turn to the northwest is anticipated over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next several days and the depression could be near hurricane intensity by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-10-10 10:48:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 125 WTPZ21 KNHC 100848 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0900 UTC SUN OCT 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.9W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.2W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.1N 105.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.8N 107.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 16.6N 108.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 17.8N 109.6W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 19.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 25.2N 106.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 102.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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Tropical Depression Victor Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-10-04 10:56:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 040856 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Victor Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202021 500 AM AST Mon Oct 04 2021 Strong southerly vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt along with entrainment of very dry mid-level air (less than 40 percent relative humidity) has continued to take its toll on Victor. Deep convection has been weakening during the past couple of hours and is now displaced more than 100 nmi north and northeast of the elongated low-level center. The shear is forecast by the global models to increase to more than 30 kt in the next 6-12 hours, while the surrounding environment becomes drier and more stable. As a result, the cyclone is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low later today and likely dissipate by Tuesday, if not sooner. Victor is moving west-northwestward or 300/12 kt, and this general motion is expected to continue through today based on the latest NHC model guidance. As a result, no significant changes were made to the previous track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 18.1N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 19.2N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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