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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-07-30 22:38:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 30 Jul 2021 20:38:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 30 Jul 2021 21:28:37 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-07-30 22:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 302037 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 30 2021 An area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring during the past several days over the eastern Pacific, has developed a well-defined surface center, as indicated in a recent scatterometer overpass, and has acquired sufficient organized convection to be classified as a 25-kt tropical depression. The northwesterly shear which has been curtailing genesis over the past couple of days has diminished just enough to allow the system to become better organized, particularly, in the east and south portions of the cyclone. The depression is embedded in weak easterly steering currents created by a deep-layer cut-off low and associated trough situated along 125W. As a result, the depression is temporarily drifting west-southwestward, or 255/4 kt. Large-scale models indicate that the cut-off feature will lift northward during the next 24-36 hours allowing a mid-tropospheric ridge to build in over the eastern Pacific. Accordingly, the cyclone should track generally westward at an increased forward speed beyond mid period. The official forecast follows suit and is based on a blend of the top forecast track performers, HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the multi-model consensus TVCN. Now that the shear is weakening and the upper tropospheric winds are predicted to become more favorable, (easterly, and little more diffluent) steady strengthening is expected while the cyclone traverses deep, warm oceanic temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is near the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and the IVCN intensity aid and is below the Decay-SHIPS statistical-dynamical guidance beyond the 72-hour period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.3N 125.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 12.0N 126.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 11.7N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 127.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.8N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 12.1N 131.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 12.5N 132.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 13.2N 135.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 13.9N 138.9W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Depression Felicia Graphics
2021-07-20 22:47:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 20:47:59 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 20 Jul 2021 21:22:29 GMT
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Tropical Depression Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 27
2021-07-20 22:47:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 750 WTPZ41 KNHC 202047 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Felicia Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021 1100 AM HST Tue Jul 20 2021 Convection once again has mostly dissipated near the low-level circulation of Felicia. Without any organized deep convection, the clock is now ticking on its remaining lifespan as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT-A scatterometer pass that was recently received at 1709 UTC had a peak wind retrieval of 32-kt just north of the center. Given the lack of convection since that time, as well as the latest Dvorak estimates decreasing further, Felicia is being downgraded to a tropical depression at this time with maximum sustained winds of 30 kt. Further weakening is anticipated as Felicia remains in a very dry, stable environment. The depression is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in the next 12 hours and open up into a trough by the end of the week, well south of Hawaii. The latest estimated motion is now to the west-southwest at 255/14 kt. The track philosophy has changed little this advisory as a large subtropical ridge will continue to steer Felicia to the west-southwest over the last few days of its life. The latest NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous forecast track as the guidance remains tightly clustered along the forecast track. On this track, Felicia will be crossing into the central Pacific basin within the next few hours. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Felicia. Future information on this system can be found in Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 0300 UTC...under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP1 ...WMO header WTPA21 PHFO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.3N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 14.8N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 21/1800Z 14.3N 144.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 22/0600Z 13.7N 147.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z 13.2N 150.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Felicia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2021-07-20 22:45:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 202045 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062021 2100 UTC TUE JUL 20 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 145W 34 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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