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Tropical Depression Ignacio Public Advisory Number 7
2021-08-03 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 030847 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ignacio Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 03 2021 ...IGNACIO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TUESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 116.3W ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ignacio was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 116.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is forecast today, followed by slow northeastward or eastward motion Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ignacio is expected to degenerate into a remnant low Tuesday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2021-08-03 10:47:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 030847 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ignacio Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-08-03 10:46:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 283 WTPZ25 KNHC 030846 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGNACIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 03 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.3W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.3W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 21.2N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2021-08-02 10:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 08:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Aug 2021 09:29:57 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-02 10:37:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 439 WTPZ45 KNHC 020837 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021 The depression has not become any better organized overnight. In fact, the earlier cluster of deep convection that was located to the west of the center has weakened with the center becoming farther exposed to the northeast of a new burst of convection that has recently developed. Unfortunately the tropical cyclone was located within the gap of the polar-orbiting ASCAT instrument overnight so there were no scatterometer data to help ascertain the depression's intensity. Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB ranged from 30 to 35 kt, and since there has been no overall change in organization, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory. The depression has a short window of opportunity today in which to become a tropical storm, however increasing shear and cool waters along the forecast track should end that possibility by early tonight. Weakening is expected to begin shortly thereafter as the system moves into aforementioned hostile environmental conditions, and the cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low by late Tuesday, and dissipate on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and follows the global model guidance in calling for dissipation in 48-60 h. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged as the cyclone should move west-northwestward along the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge. As the system weakens, it is likely to slow down and turn westward within the low-level flow around Hilda located to its southwest. The NHC track prediction remains near the middle of the guidance envelope, and little modification to the previous advisory was needed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 18.0N 113.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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