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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-07-31 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 312039 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 Visible and scatterometer satellite data continue to show depression getting stretched further from west-to-east, with the surface circulation now elliptical-shaped about 500 nmi long and 250 nmi wide. A 1757Z ASCAT-B pass revealed an ill-defined low-level circulation center and one 26-kt wind vector 60-70 nmi west of the center. Unlike a few hours ago, deep convection has begun to wane with cloud tops now warmer than -70 deg C. The intensity has been held at 25 kt based on the ASCAT wind data and the overall poor appearance in satellite imagery. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04 kt. The aforementioned ASCAT data suggest that either the center has reformed farther to the southwest near a small burst of deep convection, or that that feature is just a smaller swirl rotating around the larger gyre envelope. Thus, the estimated center location is an average between the previous center position and the small center noted in the ASCAT data. Otherwise, there is no significant change to the previous forecast tack or reasoning. After 72 hours, the models remain is major disagreement on how much, if any, binary interaction occurs between the depression and Tropical Storm Hilda, located about 650 nmi to the east. The new 12Z GFS model remains the most extreme and takes the depression northward on days 4 and 5, with the ECMWF again the weakest with little interaction with Hilda. The remainder of the NHC track guidance lies somewhere in between these two extremes. As in the previous advisory, the best call for now is to punt by remaining close to the previous forecast track, with the new official NHC track forecast still lying inside the southern edge of the guidance envelope between the ECMWF solution to the south and the consensus models farther north. The depression's future intensity, and even its existence as a tropical cyclone, depends heavily on the track over the next 120 hours. A more westward motion as per the ECMWF would keep the cyclone over warmer water and in a more favorable upper-level pattern, whereas a sharp northward motion like the GFS is predicting would take the cyclone over cold SSTs below 25 deg C and into a strong wind shear environment. Another negative factor continues to be the west-to-east stretching of the depression's low-level wind field caused by Tropical Storm Hilda's larger and stronger circulation. As more of the southerly/southwesterly cross-equatorial low-level inflow gets drawn away from the elongated cyclone and into Hilda, most of the depression's inflow will be cooler and drier air trade wind flow coming into the northern semicircle, which would induce weakening. The previous intensity forecast is being maintained for this advisory, which continues to show little strengthening for the next 48 hours, followed by only modest intensification thereafter. However, this remains a low-confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 11.6N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 11.5N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 11.6N 130.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 11.8N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 12.2N 133.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 03/0600Z 12.6N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 13.0N 135.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/1800Z 14.0N 138.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 05/1800Z 15.4N 140.8W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2021-07-31 22:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 312039 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 130W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) 1(12) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092021)
2021-07-31 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...POORLY DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION WOBBLING WESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Jul 31 the center of Nine-E was located near 11.6, -128.4 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Public Advisory Number 5
2021-07-31 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 312038 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 1100 AM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 ...POORLY DISORGANIZED DEPRESSION WOBBLING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.6N 128.4W ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 128.4 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). Some erratic motion toward the west is possible for the next day or so, followed by a slow west-northwestward motion on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little if any intensification is expected today. However, some slight strengthening is forecast on Sunday and Monday, and the depression could become a tropical storm in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-07-31 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 312038 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092021 2100 UTC SAT JUL 31 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.4W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.4W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.5N 129.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.6N 130.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 11.8N 131.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 12.2N 133.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 12.6N 134.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.0N 135.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 138.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 15.4N 140.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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