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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-02 04:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 020233 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021 The center of the tropical cyclone is located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep convection, as the system is experiencing northeasterly shear due to the flow on the south side of a large upper-level anticyclone. Enhanced infrared imagery shows that the convection is very deep over the western part of the circulation, but there is little evidence of banding features. The current intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. Hopefully we will soon obtain some additional scatterometer data to provide an intensity estimate. The depression continues its west-northwestward track with a motion near 295/11 kt. This heading should continue for the next day or two while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure area. In 2-3 days, the track could become complicated by the interaction with the circulation of Hilda to the southwest, but the system will probably be quite weak by that time. The official forecast is close to the previous one but somewhat slower in the latter part of the period. Assuming that the low-level center will become at least a little more embedded within the convection later tonight, the system is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm overnight. The storm will probably be short-lived, however, with increased shear and cooler waters causing the system to degenerate into a remnant low in a couple of days. The official forecast is not far from the model consensus predictions, but a more rapid weakening is predicted by the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 17.6N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.2N 116.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 20.4N 118.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-02 04:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 1 the center of Ten-E was located near 17.6, -112.9 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-02 04:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 020233 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102021 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 01 2021 ...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 112.9W ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 112.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast tonight, and the depression could become a tropical storm by early Monday. However, weakening is expected to begin Monday night or Tuesday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-02 04:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 020233 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 38 15(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA CLARION 50 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 2
2021-08-02 04:32:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 020232 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 0300 UTC MON AUG 02 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 112.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 112.4W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.3N 114.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 116.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.4N 118.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.7N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 112.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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