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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2021-08-01 22:37:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 20:37:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 21:28:28 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-08-01 22:36:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 012036 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102021 2100 UTC SUN AUG 01 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 36(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 50 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 12(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102021)
2021-08-01 22:36:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 1 the center of Ten-E was located near 17.4, -111.9 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2021-08-01 04:42:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 02:42:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 01 Aug 2021 02:42:51 GMT
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-08-01 04:41:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 010241 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021 500 PM HST Sat Jul 31 2021 The tropical depression's classification as a tropical cyclone is in doubt. It has not produced sustained organized deep convection for over a day and is nearly devoid of even moderate convection at this time. In addition, the surface wind field is poorly defined. A prominent swirl noted in the previous forecast package moved quickly southeastward and dissipated, leaving only a broad, elongated low centered east of previous estimates. The most recent TAFB Dvorak fix still supports an intensity of 25 kt. If organized deep convection does not redevelop soon, the system could become a remnant low or open into a trough at any time. Even if the depression is able to maintain its status as a tropical cyclone, the close proximity of rapidly intensifying Hilda to the east will likely prevent it from strengthening during the next 72 h, and this is reflected in the new NHC intensity forecast. After that time, Hilda is forecast to weaken, which could open a window for intensification (or re-formation) late in the forecast period. The official intensity forecast is now below the intensity consensus at most forecast hours. It is worth noting that the operational regional hurricane models do not capture storm-to-storm interactions very well, and this is likely influencing the relatively high intensity forecast produced by the HWRF. The eastward adjustment of the initial position has necessitated a large eastward shift in the forecast track based on the new center position. Otherwise, the general reasoning behind the NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory. A slow, westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next few days. Beyond that time, differences regarding the specifics of any direct interaction with Hilda is the primary source of uncertainty in the track forecast. Confidence in the forecast, especially at that long range, remains low. The NHC forecast is based primarily on a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 11.5N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 11.8N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 12.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 12.2N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 12.5N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 03/1200Z 12.9N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 13.5N 135.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 05/0000Z 14.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 06/0000Z 15.5N 141.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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