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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Discussion Number 1
2021-06-14 16:50:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141442 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022021 1100 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 Satellite and radar images show that the low pressure area that NHC has been following since yesterday off the coast of North Carolina has become better organized, with a small central dense overcast over the center and more prominent banding features. The low also has advanced ahead of a nearby diffuse stationary front, with that boundary lying northwest of the center. Considering the small core of the low, ample deep convection, satellite pattern, and that the low is feeding off of the thunderstorm activity (and not the front) -- it is now classified as a tropical depression. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt, which is our best estimate assuming strengthening from the 20-25 kt overnight ASCAT and surface observations. The depression is moving northeastward at about 18 kt. A large mid-latitude trough digging across eastern North America should cause the cyclone to continue moving generally northeastward, but faster, over the next couple of days. In about 48 hours, the system is forecast to dissipate near Newfoundland as it is absorbed by a larger extratropical low. Model guidance is in very good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast lies near the track consensus. The depression has about 24 hours over marginally warm waters in low-to-moderate shear to strengthen before it moves north of the Gulf Stream and decays. Almost all of the intensity guidance shows the system becoming a tropical storm tonight, and considering the healthy initial structure, the official forecast follows that guidance. The low should lose tropical characteristics in about 36 hours due to very cold waters and dissipate near Newfoundland in about 2 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 35.0N 73.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 36.6N 70.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 39.8N 65.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 43.6N 59.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Depression Two (AT2/AL022021)
2021-06-14 16:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA... ...HEADING AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... As of 11:00 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 the center of Two was located near 35.0, -73.7 with movement NE at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Two Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-14 16:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 141438 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 73.7W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 73.7W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 74.5W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 36.6N 70.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 39.8N 65.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 43.6N 59.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 73.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Two Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-06-14 16:50:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 141439 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022021 1500 UTC MON JUN 14 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 26(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Three-E Graphics
2021-06-12 22:47:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Jun 2021 20:47:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Jun 2021 21:22:42 GMT
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