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Tropical Depression Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2021-06-18 10:59:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 180859 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 18(29) X(29) X(29) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) X(18) X(18) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 105W 34 X 10(10) 6(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 19(20) 30(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) L CARDENAS 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2021-06-18 10:58:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 180858 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042021 0900 UTC FRI JUN 18 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO CORRIENTES SOUTHWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... *CABO CORRIENTES TO LAZARO CARDENAS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 101.6W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 101.3W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.8N 102.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.7N 103.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 104.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.1N 105.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.1N 105.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.4N 106.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-16 10:36:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 08:36:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 08:36:27 GMT
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carlos
tropical
depression
Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 15
2021-06-16 10:35:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160835 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 Carlos has maintained a small area of deep convection to the south and northeast of the well-defined low-level center of circulation. However, the convection has decreased in coverage and has become more linear over the past 3 h. Despite the ragged convective appearance in infrared satellite imagery, ASCAT-A/-B passes at 0438Z and 0554Z, respectively, indicated that the small cyclone was still producing winds of 28-29 kt in the northwestern quadrant. Therefore, the intensity is being kept at 30 kt for this advisory. Carlos is moving a little south of due west or 260/06 kt. As per the previous forecast discussion, a gradual westward turn is expected to occur later today, followed by a westward to west-northwestward motion thereafter as the cyclone weakens and becomes more vertically shallow, being steered more by the long-fetch easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the previous advisory track and lies near a blend of the TVCE and NOAA-HCCA consensus track models. The only positive factor that Carlos has going for it is the warm water beneath the cyclone where sea-surface temperatures (SST) are 27.5 deg C. Surrounding the small cyclone, however, is a very dry and cool airmass, with stable stratocumulus clouds now wrapping into the system, while deep-layer vertical wind shear of more than 20 kt has been increasing from the west. Although SSTs are expected to be warm enough to sustain a tropical cyclone for the next few days, the unfavorable combination of strong shear and a drier airmass is expected to cause Carlos to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low by late today, if not sooner. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 9.2N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 9.2N 135.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 9.2N 137.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1800Z 9.4N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0600Z 9.6N 139.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1800Z 9.8N 141.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2021-06-16 10:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160832 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 135.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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