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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-16 10:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 PM HST Tue Jun 15 the center of Carlos was located near 9.2, -135.0 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 15
2021-06-16 10:32:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160831 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 1100 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS BARELY HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.2N 135.0W ABOUT 1910 MI...3075 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 9.2 North, longitude 135.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low later today and dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 15
2021-06-16 10:31:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160831 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0900 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 135.0W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 135.0W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 134.7W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 9.2N 135.9W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 9.2N 137.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 9.4N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 9.6N 139.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 9.8N 141.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.2N 135.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-16 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 02:37:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Jun 2021 03:28:19 GMT
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Discussion Number 14
2021-06-16 04:37:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160236 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Carlos Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 Carlos continues to produce small, short-lived bursts of convection near its center this evening. While this limited convection lacks significant organization, it remains just active enough to hold onto Carlos as a sheared tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt, which is consistent with several earlier ASCAT passes that showed 25-30 kt winds in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. The depression continues moving just south of due west, or 260/07 kt. A gradual westward to west-northwestward turn is expected during the next day or so as Carlos moves around the southern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. Although sea-surface temperatures remain warm enough along the forecast track to support more brief convective pulses, 20-25 kt of westerly shear and limited mid-level moisture will inhibit any organized convective development. Carlos will move into a more subsident environment by 24 h, which should seal its fate as it degenerates to a remnant low. The vortex is expected to gradually spin down thereafter, and it should dissipate by late this week. The latest NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 9.6N 134.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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