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Tropical Depression Carlos Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2021-06-16 04:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160235 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 135W 34 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Carlos (EP3/EP032021)
2021-06-16 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CARLOS STILL BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 5:00 PM HST Tue Jun 15 the center of Carlos was located near 9.6, -134.2 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Carlos Public Advisory Number 14
2021-06-16 04:35:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 549 WTPZ33 KNHC 160235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlos Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032021 500 PM HST Tue Jun 15 2021 ...CARLOS STILL BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.6N 134.2W ABOUT 1850 MI...2975 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlos was located near latitude 9.6 North, longitude 134.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlos is expected to degenerate into a remnant low tomorrow and dissipate in a few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Carlos Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-06-16 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032021 0300 UTC WED JUN 16 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 134.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 134.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 133.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 9.5N 135.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 9.4N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 9.5N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 9.8N 138.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.0N 140.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.6N 134.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Carlos Graphics
2021-06-15 22:40:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 20:40:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 15 Jun 2021 21:28:24 GMT
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