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Tropical Depression Eta Graphics
2020-11-07 09:58:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 08:58:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Nov 2020 09:24:57 GMT
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Tropical Depression Eta Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-11-07 09:56:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 593 WTNT44 KNHC 070856 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 Satellite images show a large area of deep convection associated with Eta, but there is not much organization to the thunderstorm activity. An ASCAT-A pass from several hours ago showed that the circulation of Eta has become a little better defined, and the center was located a fair distance to the west-southwest of what was previously analyzed. The pass also showed that Eta has not strengthened to a tropical storm yet, with the maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range. Based on that data, and a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. After adjusting the initial position, the estimated motion is a little slower to the east-northeast than before, 060/9 kt. It should be noted that some of the models show the center re-forming to the northeast later today, which is possible given the depression's convective asymmetry. Regardless of these details, the large scale track forecast reasoning is unchanged. A continued east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next day or two as Eta moves in the flow on the east side of a mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take Eta near or to the west of the Cayman Islands later today and over central Cuba tonight and Sunday. After that time, the mid- to upper-level low is expected to cut off over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Straits. As a result, Eta will pivot around the low, which should cause a slow down and a turn to the north and then the northwest toward the Florida Keys and south Florida Sunday night and Monday. As Eta merges with the upper low, a slower motion to the northwest or north is forecast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast lies between the GFS and ECMWF models, and is quite similar to the previous one. Eta is expected to gradually strengthen on its approach to Cuba as it remains over warm waters and in an region of upper-level diffluence. However, by the time Eta reaches Cuba, the models show an increase in southwesterly wind shear and drier air being drawn into the circulation. These factors should cause Eta to level off in strength, and likely become asymmetric. When Eta interacts and merges with the upper low, it will likely take on a subtropical appearance and develop a large wind field near southern Florida. The storm is forecast to slowly weaken when it passes to the west of Florida as it moves in a drier environment. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the high end of the model guidance. Based on the new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. In addition, the Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America, although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across the Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Sunday in portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys and portions of south and central Florida beginning late Sunday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings could be required for these areas later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 18.3N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 19.3N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 20.7N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.6N 80.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0600Z 23.8N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 25.5N 83.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 26.0N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 27.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Eta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2020-11-07 09:44:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 070844 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) 2(10) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) 2(16) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) 2(16) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 2(20) 1(21) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 1(29) 1(30) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 22(40) 1(41) 1(42) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 20(30) X(30) 1(31) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 23(35) 1(36) X(36) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 23(27) 21(48) 2(50) 1(51) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) X(19) X(19) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 16(19) 18(37) 5(42) 1(43) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) 1(14) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 31(40) 3(43) 1(44) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 19(21) 2(23) 2(25) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25(28) 4(32) 2(34) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) 3(24) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) 4(17) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) 5(20) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 1(21) X(21) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 4(21) 1(22) X(22) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 5(17) 3(20) 1(21) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 2( 2) 36(38) 5(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) GRAND CAYMAN 34 6 41(47) X(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) 1(49) GRAND CAYMAN 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression Eta (AT4/AL292020)
2020-11-07 09:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ETA FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN FLORIDA... As of 4:00 AM EST Sat Nov 7 the center of Eta was located near 18.3, -84.9 with movement ENE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Eta Public Advisory Number 27
2020-11-07 09:43:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 560 WTNT34 KNHC 070843 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020 400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020 ...ETA FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 84.9W ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. The Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward to Sebastian Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cayman Islands * The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas. * Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth. * Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita Beach * Lake Okeechobee * Florida Keys * Florida Bay A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 84.9 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). An east-northeast to northeast motion at a faster forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today, with further strengthening likely through Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Thursday morning: Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua. Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm). The Bahamas and portions of the Florida peninsula, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm). The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-3 ft Florida Keys...2-3 ft North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands this afternoon and evening, in the warning area in Cuba tonight and Sunday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in south Florida and the Florida Keys by late Sunday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday night over south Florida and the Keys. SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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