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Tropical Depression Wilfred Graphics
2020-09-20 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 20:34:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 20:34:27 GMT
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Tropical Depression Wilfred Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-09-20 22:33:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 202033 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Wilfred Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 Wilfred is not a healthy tropical cyclone as strong vertical shear from the combination of outflow from Hurricane Teddy as well as winds on the southern side of a nearby upper-level trough are impinging upon the system. While there is substantial deep convection, it is more linear rather than curved in appearance and it may be more a product of forcing from the upper-level trough rather than the tropical cyclone itself. Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB have reduced some at 18Z, though the intensity remains a perhaps generous 30 kt. The tropical cyclone continues to move west-northwest at a fast 17 kt clip. As the system slowly winds down, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level flow indicating a slower movement toward the west or west-northwest until dissipation. The new track forecast is similar to that from the previous advisory, except for the final 60 hr point that does show a turn toward the northwest based upon the TVCN and HCCA track consensus techniques. Strong shear and dry mid-level humidities should continue to cause a reduction in the deep convection and lead to the system becoming a remnant low in a day or two followed shortly thereafter by dissipation. Most statistical and dynamical intensity guidance is in agreement. A plausible alternate scenario is that the small circulation opens up into a trough and dissipation occurs sooner than indicated below. It is worth noting that the ECMWF model does suggest the possibility of reformation of the system farther north by day three. However, this scenario is discounted at this time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 15.9N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 16.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 16.5N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 16.5N 50.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/1800Z 16.8N 51.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 23/0600Z 17.8N 52.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATED 72H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Depression Wilfred (AT3/AL232020)
2020-09-20 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WILFRED REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Wilfred was located near 15.9, -45.8 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Wilfred Public Advisory Number 10
2020-09-20 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 202033 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Wilfred Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL232020 500 PM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...WILFRED REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 45.8W ABOUT 1445 MI...2330 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Wilfred was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 45.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). Wilfred should slow its forward speed while heading toward the west or west-northwestward for the next couple days until dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Wilfred should weaken to a remnant low within a day or two, but could also degenerate into a trough of low pressure during that time. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression Wilfred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2020-09-20 22:33:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 202033 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL232020 2100 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILFRED WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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