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Tropical Depression Beta Graphics
2020-09-22 17:05:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 15:05:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Sep 2020 15:05:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression Beta Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-09-22 16:59:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 221458 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Beta Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio, Corpus Christi, and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has moved a little farther inland and has weakened to a tropical depression. The same data also show that Beta has started a slow drift toward the northeast. Deep convection has waned considerably since the previous advisory, especially during the past few hours, with cloud tops now warmer than -30 deg C, which no longer meets the Dvorak satellite classification criterion. The initial intensity is 30 kt is based on average Doppler velocities of 35-40 kt between 1500-2500 ft ASL just to the southeast and south of Galveston. The initial motion estimate is now 045/02 kt. Steering currents around Beta remain weak. However, water vapor imagery indicates that a broad mid- to upper-level trough over western Texas is moving slowly eastward, and that feature should gradually force Beta east-northeastward later today and tonight, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast on Wednesday and Thursday across Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, which keeps Beta just inland from the Gulf coast, and lies near a blend of the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX, and the NOAA corrected-consensus model HCCA. Since Beta's center is forecast to remain just inland for the next 36-48 hours, chances of the cyclone regaining tropical storm status are becoming less likely. As a result, the new official intensity forecast shows Beta remaining a 25-30 kt depression during that time, followed by weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours, and dissipation over Mississippi or Alabama by 96 hours. This is consistent with the various simple and corrected-consensus models. Although Beta is now an inland tropical depression, the National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on the cyclone due to its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and until it becomes clear that re-strengthening into a tropical storm is unlikely. Key Messages: 1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is possible on smaller rivers. 2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normal high tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slow to recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, please refer to coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 28.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/0000Z 29.0N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1200Z 29.6N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0000Z 30.4N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1200Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 25/0000Z 33.1N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/1200Z 34.4N 88.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Beta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-09-22 16:58:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 221458 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL222020 1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) CAMERON LA 34 1 6( 7) 7(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) JASPER TX 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) KOUNTZE TX 34 2 11(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 12(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GALVESTON TX 34 8 16(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) HOUSTON TX 34 15 11(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) FREEPORT TX 34 20 9(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 17(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MATAGORDA TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ROCKPORT TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Depression Beta (AT2/AL222020)
2020-09-22 16:58:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... As of 10:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 the center of Beta was located near 28.9, -96.7 with movement NE at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Beta Public Advisory Number 20
2020-09-22 16:58:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 221457 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Beta Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020 ...BETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER TEXAS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.9N 96.7W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF VICTORIA TEXAS ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WNW OF PALACIOS TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued. Information on ongoing coastal flooding can be found in coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service offices. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was located by surface observations, satellites, and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 96.7 West. The depression is drifting toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion toward the east-northeast is expected by this afternoon and tonight. An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday. Data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today with gradual weakening anticipated through Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20 inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will continue today. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as isolated minor river flooding on smaller rivers. TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast. SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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