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Tropical Depression Thirteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2020-08-20 11:01:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 200900 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 21(28) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 9(35) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 4(34) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 2(25) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 24(36) 1(37) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 13(40) X(40) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 5(22) X(22) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) X(16) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 12(22) X(22) X(22) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SABA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 2
2020-08-20 11:01:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200900 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 49.8W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as additional tropical storm watches or warnings will be required for portions of those areas later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 49.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-20 07:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 05:51:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 03:24:52 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-20 07:48:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 2:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20 the center of Thirteen was located near 15.1, -49.0 with movement WNW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Public Advisory Number 1A
2020-08-20 07:48:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 200548 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Thirteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 49.0W ABOUT 915 MI...1475 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches could be required for those areas on Thursday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 49.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the depression is expected to move near or north of the northern Leeward Islands by late Friday and near or north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches through Sunday over the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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