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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-20 12:24:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 10:24:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 10:24:18 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-08-20 11:25:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 200924 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THOSE AREAS LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 49.8W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 49.8W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 48.9W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.4N 52.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 56.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 18.4N 60.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.8N 67.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.8N 71.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 26.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 49.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Thirteen Graphics
2020-08-20 11:09:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 09:09:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 20 Aug 2020 09:09:42 GMT
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thirteen
Tropical Depression Thirteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-08-20 11:01:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 200901 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 500 AM AST Thu Aug 20 2020 There has been little change in the organization of Tropical Depression Thirteen during the past several hours. An area of ragged but persistent convection continues near the estimated center position, and there is some outer banding in the southern semicircle. Dvorak-based satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the last advisory, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/18. The subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected to build westward to the north of the Greater Antilles during the next several days, and this should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward through the forecast period. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement with this scenario, but there remains a spread between the GFS/UKMET on the south side of the guidance and the Canadian/HMON on the north side. Overall, the envelope has shifted a little to the south since the previous advisory and the new forecast track, which lies just to the north of the consensus models, is also nudged southward. The new track calls for the cyclone to pass near the Leeward Islands in 36-48 h, near or north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in 48-60 h, and then near or over Hispaniola and the southeastern Bahamas by 72 h. Overall, the environment looks generally favorable for strengthening, with the cyclone expected to encounter light- to moderate shear during forecast period. However, the guidance responds to this environment with a wide range of solutions. The HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane by 120 h. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the system degenerating into an open wave by 120 h. The UKMET and Canadian models are between these extremes. The weak GFS solution appears to be due to forecast dry air entrainment, which is a possibility as satellite imagery suggests Saharan dust not far from the cyclone. Between these factors and the possibility of land interaction, the low-confidence intensity forecast is changed little from the previous advisory. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are possible across portions of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday night, and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for some of these islands. Heavy rainfall is likely across this area beginning late Friday. 2. There is a risk of tropical storm conditions in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Friday night and Saturday and Tropical Storm Watches could be required for these islands later today. Interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system could move over portions of the Greater Antilles this weekend. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, the Bahamas, and Florida this weekend and early next week. Interests there should monitor this system's progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.2N 49.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 16.4N 52.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 17.5N 56.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 18.4N 60.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 19.1N 63.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 19.8N 67.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 20.8N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 23.0N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 26.0N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-20 11:01:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 20 the center of Thirteen was located near 15.2, -49.8 with movement WNW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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