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Tropical Depression Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-05 10:37:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 08:37:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 05 Jun 2020 08:37:35 GMT
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2020-06-05 10:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 050836 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 7(11) 1(12) X(12) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) X(12) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 3(14) X(14) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 13(20) 2(22) X(22) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) X(21) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 6(29) X(29) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 7(32) 1(33) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 25(27) 5(32) X(32) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) 26(46) 2(48) X(48) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) 1(25) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 7(34) 1(35) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 29(44) 3(47) X(47) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 10(35) X(35) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 8(33) X(33) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 13(28) 1(29) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 10(30) 1(31) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 9(30) 1(31) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 14(19) 2(21) X(21) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 1(19) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) X(25) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 10(22) X(22) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 6(24) X(24) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MERIDA MX 34 7 13(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) COZUMEL MX 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) BELIZE CITY 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 14(19) 2(21) X(21) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 24(29) 4(33) 1(34) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-06-05 10:36:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 050836 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 Cristobal's structure has continued to degrade since the last advisory. Radar imagery from Sabancuy, Mexico shows little banding near the center of the cyclone, though substantial convection is still present in the northeast quadrant, over the Yucatan peninsula. Earlier ASCAT data showed winds of 25-30 kt over the southern Gulf of Mexico, and slightly stronger east-southeasterly winds over the western Caribbean Sea. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, but it should be noted that the highest wind speeds over land associated with the circulation of Cristobal are likely lower. Cristobal is forecast to remain over land for another 12 to 18 hours, and little change in strength is anticipated during that time. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, gradual strengthening still seems likely until Cristobal reaches the northern U.S. Gulf Coast, and the NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged from the previous advisory. The depression has completed a slow counter-clockwise loop and now appears to be heading north-northeastward near 6 kt. The initial position and motion are somewhat uncertain since the declining structure of the cyclone makes it difficult to pinpoint a center position at night. An upper-level trough to the west and a mid-level ridge to the east of Cristobal are contributing to the deep southerly flow that should steer the cyclone generally northward for the next few days. All of the global models forecast this to occur, though the exact forward speed at which Cristobal will move is more uncertain. Overall, the 6Z guidance shows the cyclone moving northward at a slightly faster pace and the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. It now slightly lags the consensus but is still faster than the ECMWF and the ECMWF ensemble mean. Regardless of its exact track and forward speed, Cristobal is expected to have a broad and asymmetric wind field as it approaches the northern Gulf coast. The strongest winds, highest storm surge, and heaviest rains could be well removed from the center of circulation. Therefore, it is important that users do not focus on the exact forecast path of the center of the cyclone. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico later today and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobal's center. Storm surge and tropical storm watches will likely be issued for a portion of the U.S. Gulf Coast later today. 3. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast from east Texas to Florida this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 18.8N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 07/0600Z 25.7N 90.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/1800Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 08/0600Z 29.6N 91.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 96H 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 10/0600Z 40.0N 90.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-05 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 the center of Cristobal was located near 18.8, -90.1 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 15
2020-06-05 10:35:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050835 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 ...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 90.1W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch will likely be required for a portion of the area later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located inland near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 90.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today, and a general northward motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the Yucatan peninsula through the day today. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while the depression is located over land. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin once the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Gusty conditions are possible today along the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 1 to 3 inches. Southern Guatemala and coastal portions of Chiapas...Additional 8 to 12 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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