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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 2
2020-06-02 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 020234 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020 Satellite imagery, along with radar and surface data from Mexico, indicate that the depression has changed little in organization or strength since the previous advisory. There are a couple of small clusters of convection near the center, while the more concentrated convection is occurring in ragged bands well removed from the center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the surface data and continuity from the previous advisory. The initial motion is now westward or 270/6. The evolution of this system during the next several days remains quite uncertain. The Canadian and UKMET models forecast the cyclone to make a slow counter-clockwise loop inside a larger gyre over Central America during the next 2-3 days, with the center moving near the coast of the Bay of Campeche. This would be followed by a more northward motion with some increase in forward speed as a mid-/upper-level trough develops over the northern Gulf of Mexico. On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the depression turning southward and making landfall over the coast of Mexico in the next 24-36 h, followed by dissipation. These two models subsequently develop a second low pressure area northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula at around 120 h due to the interaction of the aforementioned gyre and trough. The new forecast track follows the previous forecast in showing TD-3 as being the system that moves northward across the Gulf. However, the new track brings the center closer to the coast of Mexico and is slower to move it northward than in the previous advisory. It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3. In the current track forecast scenario, slow strengthening should occur during the next 24-48 h while the cyclone moves over the warm water of the Bay of Campeche in an environment of light to moderate shear. After time, proximity to the Mexican coast should limit strengthening, and it is possible that the current forecast intensities could be generous. The more northward motion near the end of the forecast period is likely to be accompanied by an increase in southerly shear, so only modest intensification is forecast during that time. Overall, the new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast. An alternative intensity forecast scenario is that the cyclone moves far enough inland over Mexico to dissipate completely in less than 5 days as forecast by the GFS and ECMWF. Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and intensity forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 19.6N 91.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 19.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 19.2N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.8N 93.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 18.6N 93.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 18.5N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 18.5N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 19.5N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 22.0N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-02 04:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 the center of Three was located near 19.6, -91.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 2
2020-06-02 04:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 020234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 91.9W AT 02/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 91.9W AT 02/0300Z AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 91.7W FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.6N 92.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 19.2N 92.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.8N 93.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 93.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.5N 93.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.5N 93.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 19.5N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.0N 91.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 91.9W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 2
2020-06-02 04:34:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 01 2020 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 91.9W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 91.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This heading at a slower forward speed is expected tonight. The depression is forecast to turn west-southwestward or southward at a even slower forward speed on Tuesday, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche Tuesday night through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco and Veracruz, portions of Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. This system is also expected to produce rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches over parts of El Salvador and Honduras. Isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches are possible in the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, Chiapas and portions of Guatemala. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Tuesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2020-06-02 01:47:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 01 Jun 2020 23:47:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 01 Jun 2020 23:36:08 GMT
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