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Tropical Depression Three Graphics
2020-06-02 11:09:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 09:09:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 09:09:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-06-02 10:50:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 785 WTNT43 KNHC 020849 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 Satellite data, Mexican radar data from Sabancuy, and nearby surface observations indicate that the depression has become a little better organized and has strengthened slightly since the previous advisory. Radar data indicate a mass of convection has developed north of and over the low-level center, and a broken curved band has also formed in the eastern semicircle. The initial intensity has been increased to 30 kt based on a 0201 UTC ASCAT-A overpass that showed a couple of 27-kt vectors located in the northeastern quadrant outside of the most active convection. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression later this morning. The initial motion is westward or 270/02 kt. The latest 00Z model guidance continues to show the depression remaining embedded within the larger Central American gyre for the next few days, with the gyre gradually contracting around the depression, with the two entities merging into one system by 72 hours. Similar to last night, tonight's model runs have again abandoned the development of a secondary low east of the depression and moving it northward toward the U. S Gulf coast. This may be due in part to the lack of Mexican and Central American upper-air data at 0000 UTC, except for the Belize sounding. But the global and regional models are in overall in good agreement on the cyclone remaining trapped in a break in the subtropical ridge to the east and west of the depression. By 72-96 hours, a weak shortwave trough is forecast to drop southward out of the southern plains and into into the ridge weakness and act as a catalyst to nudge the depression slowly northward on days 4 and 5. Until that time, the cyclone is expected to meander over the the Bay of Campeche for the next 2-3 days, possibly making landfall along the coast of extreme southeastern Mexico and the west coast of Yucatan. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and brings the center close to the coast of Mexico on days 2 and 3. It should be noted, though, that in 5 days there could be a cyclone near the forecast point that is not actually TD-3 due to land interaction and the possible formation of a secondary cyclone. Although the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain low while the cyclone remains trapped in the Bay of Campeche during the next few days, only slow strengthening is expected due to possible land interaction and intrusions of dry air caused by southwesterly downslope flow coming off of the mountains in the state of Chiapas, which already appears to be underway based on satellite and radar imagery. After the cyclone starts moving northward, increasing southerly shear is expected to inhibit any significant or rapid strengthening. An alternative intensity forecast scenario is that the cyclone moves far enough inland over Mexico to dissipate completely in less than 5 days as forecast by the GFS and HWRF models. Given the complexity of the situation, both the track and intensity forecasts are currently low confidence. However, either of the current scenarios will result in widespread heavy rains over portions of southern Mexico and Central America. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. The depression is expected to bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. The system is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico later this week. However, it is too soon to specify the location and timing of any potential impacts along the U.S. Gulf Coast. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system through the week and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place as we begin the season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 19.6N 92.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.1N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 18.8N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 19.0N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 19.3N 92.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 20.7N 91.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 23.5N 91.2W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-02 10:48:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 the center of Three was located near 19.6, -92.1 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 3
2020-06-02 10:48:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020848 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 ...DEPRESSION DRIFTING WESTWARD OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...LIFE-THREATENING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 92.1W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ENE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Puerto de Veracruz A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next within 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 92.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). The depression is forecast to move slowly west-southwestward or southward this afternoon and tonight, and meander over the southern Bay of Campeche through late Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone is forecast to be near the coast of the southern Bay of Campeche tonight through Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) based on nearby surface observations. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Three can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Three is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches over parts of the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz, and Campeche. The depression is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 15 inches over northern Chiapas and other Mexican states, Quintana Roo and Yucatan. Additional rainfall of 10 to 15 inches, with isolated amounts of 25 inches is expected along the Pacific coasts of Chiapas, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Some of these Pacific locations received 20 inches of rain over the weekend, and storm total amounts of 35 inches are possible. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-06-02 10:48:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 020847 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC TUE JUN 02 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 92.1W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 92.1W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 92.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.5N 92.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.1N 92.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.8N 92.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 92.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.0N 92.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.3N 92.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 20.7N 91.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 91.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 92.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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