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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 14
2020-06-05 04:35:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050235 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 ...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... ...CRISTOBAL EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER BY FRIDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 90.4W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch will likely be required for a portion of the area on Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located inland near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 90.4 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected overnight, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico on Friday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected over the next day or so, but slow strengthening is forecast to occur this weekend when Cristobal moves back over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 14
2020-06-05 04:34:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050234 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC FRI JUN 05 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND A STORM SURGE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 90.4W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 90.4W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 90.5W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.1N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.9N 90.2W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...210NE 210SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.3N 90.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 180SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.3N 90.4W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 28.3N 90.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 32.6N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 37.3N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 90.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-04 22:41:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 20:41:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 21:25:01 GMT
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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 13
2020-06-04 22:41:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042041 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Cristobal Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 The cyclone's cloud pattern is quite disorganized, with little deep convection near the center. The current intensity estimate is 30 kt, although this may be generous. Since the center should remain over land into Friday morning, some additional weakening could occur during the next 12-24 hours. A re-intensification trend is expected to commence in 36 hours, assuming that the center moves back into the Gulf of Mexico by then. As noted earlier, the atmospheric environment over the Gulf is not particularly conducive for strengthening, with moderate southwesterly shear and some mid-level dry air. There are a number of arc clouds noted in satellite images over the Gulf at this time, which is indicative of drier air at mid-levels. As in the earlier advisories, the NHC intensity forecast is higher than the model consensus. Due to the limitations in tropical cyclone intensity prediction, there is some uncertainty in the strength of Cristobal when it reaches the northern Gulf coast. The system is turning to the left as it executes a partial cyclonic loop within a broad gyre. Beginning tomorrow night, Cristobal should head northward over the Gulf into a weakness in the subtropical ridge. There has not been much change in the official track forecast, which follows the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus. The ECMWF model does show a little more shift to the left in 3-4 days which is also reflected in the NHC track. This should not be considered as a significant change, however, especially for a broad cyclone such as this one. The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand as the cyclone moves over the Gulf of Mexico, and this is reflected in the official wind radii forecast. This suggests that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf coast, the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the center. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already been occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. 2. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of tropical storm force winds this weekend from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle and a risk of dangerous storm surge from Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend. These hazards, along with heavy rainfall, will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. Tropical storm and storm surge watches could be issued tonight or Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 17.5N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 18.4N 90.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 05/1800Z 20.1N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0600Z 21.9N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 06/1800Z 23.8N 90.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 07/0600Z 25.6N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 07/1800Z 27.5N 90.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 08/1800Z 31.0N 92.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 120H 09/1800Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-04 22:40:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 the center of Cristobal was located near 17.5, -90.8 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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