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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2020-04-26 04:32:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260232 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 800 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 Deep convection has increased a little in association with Tropical Depression One-E during the past several hours. However, visible satellite images and an AMSR2 microwave pass from a few hours ago indicate that the low-level center is displaced to the northwest of the main area of showers and thunderstorms. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, following the Dvorak classification from TAFB. This estimate is also in line with the latest satellite intensity estimates from CIMSS ADT and SATCON. It is also worth noting that dry air is wrapping into the circulation of the depression, which is likely limiting its convective organization. Although some very short-term strengthening can't be ruled out and it is possible that the cyclone could briefly become a tropical storm, weakening should begin on Sunday. The system will be moving into an environment of strong westerly shear, drier air, and progressively cooler waters. These conditions should cause the system to become a remnant low by Sunday night, when the shear is expected to be near 30 kt and SSTs around 24 C beneath the cyclone. All of the models show the the depression dissipating entirely early next week. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged from earlier today. The depression is currently moving northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level ridge, and it should continue moving in that direction for the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to be a shallow remnant low, and it expected to move westward in the low-level trade wind flow until it dissipates. The NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 14.8N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 15.6N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression One-E (EP1/EP012020)
2020-04-26 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL OUT TO SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 the center of One-E was located near 14.8, -117.5 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression One-E Public Advisory Number 3
2020-04-26 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 260231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression One-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012020 800 PM PDT Sat Apr 25 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION WELL OUT TO SEA... ...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.8N 117.5W ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 117.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Sunday. A turn to the west is expected by Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated during the next day or so. The system is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression One-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2020-04-26 04:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 260231 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 0300 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression One-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2020-04-26 04:31:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 260231 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012020 0300 UTC SUN APR 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.5W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 117.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.6N 118.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.3N 120.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.0N 124.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 117.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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