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Tropical Depression Ten-E Public Advisory Number 1
2019-08-21 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 211450 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 107.3W ABOUT 545 MI...875 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 107.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn to the northwest along with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast for the next couple of days and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight, and a hurricane by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2019-08-21 16:49:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 211449 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 107.3W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 106.5W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-08-12 04:51:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past several days has finally developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. A late-arriving 1716Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass indicated the surface wind field was possibly closed at that time, but since then deep convection with tops of -75C to -80C have persisted near and to the west of the mid-level circulation center, suggesting that a low-level center has likely closed off now. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 30-31 kt winds indicated in the aforementioned scatterometer data. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 295/12 kt, based primarily on scatterometer and passive microwave fixes. The small cyclone is expected to move west-northwestward around the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 3 days until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast lies near the southern portion of the guidance envelope, between the TVCE consensus model and the ECMWF-ensemble mean model. The small cyclone only has about 36 hours to strengthen before the system moves over sub-26 deg C SSTs. The shear is forecast to be low at less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours or so, even decreasing to near 5 kt in 24-36 h, which would normally result in significant development. However, intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air are expected to disrupt the typical intensification process, thus only modest strengthening is forecast through 36 h, after which much cooler waters will induce a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Nine-E Graphics
2019-08-12 04:49:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 02:49:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 03:24:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Nine-E (EP4/EP092019)
2019-08-12 04:48:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 the center of Nine-E was located near 18.9, -109.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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