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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 5
2019-08-22 04:32:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 254 WTNT24 KNHC 220232 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 47.4W AT 22/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 47.4W AT 22/0300Z AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 48.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 47.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Graphics
2019-08-21 16:52:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 14:52:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Aug 2019 14:52:25 GMT
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-08-21 16:51:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 211451 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 900 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 2019 Satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the disturbance that has been tracked to the south of Mexico for the past several days has become much better organized since yesterday. An early morning scatterometer pass showed a nearly closed surface low with peak winds of 30 kt. Since that time, the appearance of the disturbance has continued to improve, suggesting that the low has most likely closed at the surface. Based on this data, advisories are being initiated for Tropical Depression 10-E. Subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest a 30 kt intensity, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The depression's initial motion is 285/16 kt. The cyclone is being steered to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends from northwestern Mexico across much of the eastern Pacific. Model guidance is in good agreement that a weakness will develop in this ridge over the next day or so to the northwest of the depression. This should cause the system to make a turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed in about 24 hours. The depression is then forecast to continue to move northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The cyclone is expected to move over very warm waters of around 30 C, through a moist environment, and with 10-15 kt of northeasterly shear over the next 48 hours. With these conditions, steady strengthening is forecast during that time frame, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today, and a minimal hurricane in 48 hours. The official forecast is close to the model intensity guidance consensus through 24 hours, and is then on the higher end of the guidance from 24 to 72 hours out of respect for a possible decrease in shear. In a few days the cyclone will move over much cooler waters and into a stable air mass while undergoing increasing shear. This will cause the cyclone to weaken and it is expected to become a convection-free post-tropical cyclone by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 15.4N 107.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 15.9N 109.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 16.6N 112.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 17.5N 114.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 18.5N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 24/1200Z 21.0N 117.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 24.4N 118.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 27.6N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Ten-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-08-21 16:50:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 211450 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT IS GUADALUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) PUNTA EUGENIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 16 11(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 47(50) 30(80) 5(85) X(85) X(85) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 12(12) 26(38) 5(43) X(43) X(43) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 31(44) 16(60) 1(61) X(61) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 4(22) 1(23) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 8(26) 25N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 25N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 30N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Ten-E (EP5/EP102019)
2019-08-21 16:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 9:00 AM MDT Wed Aug 21 the center of Ten-E was located near 15.4, -107.3 with movement WNW at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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