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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-08-22 10:42:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 220842 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 Chantal has been able to sustain an area of convection just to the east of its low-level center since the last advisory, and final-T numbers are actually back up to a unanimous T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt. The depression is getting ready to move over a tongue of slightly warmer waters, and vertical shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt in a day or two. However, there is abundant dry air around the system, and upper-level convergence is expected to increase, both of which should extinguish Chantal's organized deep convection in 24-36 hours. The NHC intensity forecast continues to most closely follow the global models, with Chantal expected to become a remnant low on Friday and degenerate into a trough on Sunday. Chantal is moving south of due east and a little slower than before, or 100/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to build over Chantal in the coming days, leaving the depression in weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop before it dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and lies between the ECMWF, HCCA, and the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 39.1N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 36.2N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)
2019-08-22 10:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Aug 22 the center of Chantal was located near 39.1, -45.7 with movement E at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 6
2019-08-22 10:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 220842 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019 ...CHANTAL SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.1N 45.7W ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 45.7 West. The depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h). Chantal is forecast to slow down and make a clockwise loop through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Chantal is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-08-22 10:42:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 220842 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-08-22 10:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 220841 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 45.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 45.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 46.4W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.2N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 45.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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