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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-08-23 10:38:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 230838 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 Chantal's convection has become quite meager, with small intermittent bursts continuing mainly to the east of the center. Given the decreasing convective organization, Dvorak Current Intensity numbers from TAFB and SAB are down to 1.5, and the initial intensity is therefore lowered to 25 kt. Large-scale subsidence and a very dry air mass are making it harder and harder for Chantal to maintain organized deep convection, and it's likely that the depression will degenerate into a remnant low within the next 24 hours. Each of the global models shows the remnant low hanging around for various periods of time, but the official forecast continues to show dissipation in 72 hours, which is in closest agreement with the ECMWF model. Chantal is moving southeastward, or 140/7 kt. High pressure in the lower levels of the atmosphere is expected to jump from the southwest to the northeast of Chantal during the next couple of days, which will cause the depression/remnant low to move slowly southward and then westward before dissipating. The latest track guidance (and thus the official forecast) shows a more sweeping curved trajectory than before, but in the grand scheme of things the change is not that significant. The new NHC forecast generally lies between the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 37.1N 40.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 35.4N 41.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 24/1800Z 35.2N 42.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression Chantal (AT4/AL042019)
2019-08-23 10:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL WEAKENS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Aug 23 the center of Chantal was located near 37.1, -40.9 with movement SE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Chantal Public Advisory Number 10
2019-08-23 10:38:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 230838 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019 500 AM AST Fri Aug 23 2019 ...CHANTAL WEAKENS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.1N 40.9W ABOUT 765 MI...1225 KM W OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 140 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 40.9 West. Chantal is moving toward the southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Chantal is likely to degenerate into a remnant low by tonight. The remnant low could dissipate by late Sunday or Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Chantal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-08-23 10:38:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 111 FONT14 KNHC 230838 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Chantal Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-08-23 10:38:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 230837 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019 0900 UTC FRI AUG 23 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 40.9W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 140 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 40.9W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 41.1W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 40.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.4N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.2N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 35.4N 43.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 40.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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