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Tropical Depression Vicente Forecast Advisory Number 16
2018-10-23 10:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230837 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF VICENTE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 102.0W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 101.7W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 102.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Twenty-four-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-10-20 13:02:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 201101 CCB TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 CORRECTED HEADER FORMAT THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Graphics
2018-10-20 11:06:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 09:06:18 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Oct 2018 09:28:03 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-10-20 11:06:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 200905 CCA TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Corrected advisory number from 2 to 1 Various satellite data indicate that the area of low pressure that NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico for thew past few days has acquired enough convective organization to be designated as a tropical depression, the twenty-fourth one of the very busy 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. Although the depression is a sheared system, some banding features have recently developed south of the center, while overshooting cloud tops just west of the center are quite cold -85 to -91 deg C). The initial intensity is set to 30 kt based on a satellite intensity estimate of T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 280/08 kt, based primarily on passive microwave fixes and GOES-16 nighttime imagery. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected by this afternoon, followed by a slower northwestward motion on Sunday as the system moves along the southwestern periphery of a weakening mid-level ridge. A slow northwestward motion is expected to continue into early next week while the ridge to the north changes little. On days 4 and 5, however, a series of weak shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the larger scale southwesterly flow locked in over the southwestern U.S. and northern Mexico, causing an erosion of the western portion of the ridge, which should allow the cyclone to gradually recurve northward and north-northeastward. The NHC model guidance is in good agreement overall on this developing track scenario, and the official forecast track lies between the HCCA and TVCE track consensus aids. The depression is expected to steadily strengthen during the next 96 hours due to very favorable environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear (less than 10 kt), high amounts of mid-level moisture, and warm 28-30 deg C SSTs. As a result, the cyclone is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning, a hurricane by Sunday night, and be near major hurricane strength by Wednesday. Given the very favorable conditions expected on Sunday and Monday, there is a fair chance of rapid intensification occurring similar to that depicted by the COAMPS-TC and HMON models, which bring the cyclone to category-4 status around 72 hours. The NHC official intensity forecast near the HCCA and IVCN consensus models through 96 hours, and then a little above the guidance at 120 hours despite an increase in the shear expected at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.1N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W 95 KT 110 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-10-20 11:04:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 200904 CCA PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018...CORRECTED 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER FROM 2 TO 1 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 17(40) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 15(26) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) CULIACAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CULIACAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 12(25) 13(38) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 14(20) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 9(18) SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 6(18) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 105W 34 62 3(65) 2(67) 1(68) 1(69) 1(70) 1(71) 15N 105W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 15N 105W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 4(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 6(16) 4(20) 4(24) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 9(17) 11(28) 7(35) 3(38) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 30(39) 19(58) 9(67) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 8(35) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 5(18) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 31(40) 18(58) 8(66) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 14(24) 6(30) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 4(17) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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