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Tropical Depression Twenty-three-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-10-19 16:57:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 191457 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-THREE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-THREE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 8(23) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 4(17) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 12(37) 2(39) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 6(17) 1(18) X(18) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 10N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 95W 34 1 6( 7) 8(15) 7(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P SAN JOSE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Depression Twenty-three-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-10-19 16:57:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 191456 TCMEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 1500 UTC FRI OCT 19 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 91.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 91.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 91.8W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 13.7N 93.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.5N 94.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.3N 96.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 99.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 91.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-three-E (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-19 16:57:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...THE INCESSANT EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON CONTINUES... ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... As of 10:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 the center of Twenty-three-E was located near 13.3, -91.9 with movement WNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-three-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-10-19 16:57:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 191456 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 ...THE INCESSANT EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON CONTINUES... ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF GUATEMALA WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 91.9W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF PUERTO SAN JOSE GUATEMALA ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF TAPACHULA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the depression. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. The depression is moving slowly toward the west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A west-northwestward or westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to remain south of the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Wednesday morning, the depression is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with local amounts to 15 inches across portions of El Salvador and southern Guatemala, with 3 to 6 inches and local amounts to 10 inches near the Pacific coast of southeastern Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Tara 5-Day Track, Uncertainty Cone, Warnings (.shp)
2018-10-16 22:35:32| Tropical Depression LIDIA
GIS Data last updated Tue, 16 Oct 2018 20:35:32 GMT
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