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Tropical Depression Vicente Graphics
2018-10-23 10:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 08:39:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 23 Oct 2018 09:21:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Vicente Forecast Discussion Number 16
2018-10-23 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230838 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Vicente Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Cells of heavy showers and thunderstorms are still forming near Vicente's center, but overall the convective organization has continued to deteriorate. Scatterometer data from 0418 UTC showed maximum winds of around 25 kt, so assuming some undersampling of the small circulation, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt. WindSat and ASCAT data revealed that Vicente's center had moved a little to the east of earlier fixes, and the depression's initial motion estimate is north-northwestward, or 330/10 kt. This motion should continue as Vicente gets drawn up between Hurricane Willa's circulation and a low- to mid-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, and the depression is therefore forecast to move inland over the Mexican state of Michoacan later today. Once inland, the tiny circulation is likely to dissipate quickly over mountainous terrain. A 12-hour remnant low position is provided for continuity to show a track moving inland, but in all likelihood Vicente will have dissipated by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.2N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.2N 103.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Vicente Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-10-23 10:38:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230837 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP232018 0900 UTC TUE OCT 23 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION VICENTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Vicente (EP3/EP232018)
2018-10-23 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...VICENTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN LATER TODAY... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 the center of Vicente was located near 17.2, -102.0 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Vicente Public Advisory Number 16
2018-10-23 10:37:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Vicente Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 23 2018 ...VICENTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MEXICAN STATE OF MICHOACAN LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 102.0W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of Vicente. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Vicente was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 102.0 West. Vicente is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the center of Vicente is expected to move inland over the Mexican state of Michoacan later today. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Vicente is expected to dissipate later today or tonight after it has moved inland over Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Vicente or its remnants are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with local amounts to 10 inches through today over portions of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco in Mexico. This rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides within mountainous terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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