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Tropical Depression Willa Public Advisory Number 17
2018-10-24 10:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 240835 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Willa Advisory Number 17...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 Corrected location relative to Durango Mexico ...WILLA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 103.6W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF DURANGO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Willa was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 103.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. The forecast track will continue to bring Wilma farther inland over west-central and northern Mexico. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast and Willa is expected to dissipate by early afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Storm surge levels along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit will gradually subside this morning. RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Willa will continue to diminish today as the depression weakens. Additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches possible from eastern Durango, northern Zacateca and southern Coahuila. This rain will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico, and the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Willa Graphics
2018-10-24 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 24 Oct 2018 08:36:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 24 Oct 2018 09:21:49 GMT
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Tropical Depression Willa Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-10-24 10:33:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240833 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Willa Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 AM CDT Wed Oct 24 2018 Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Willa is located well inland over the eastern portion of the Mexican state of Durango. Deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough will continue to drive the mid and upper-level circulations to the northeast and farther inland, with the low-level circulation shearing away and lagging back to the southwest due to the blocking high terrain of west-central and northern Mexico. A 12-hour forecast position has been provided for continuity purposes, which reflects where the mid-level circulation center is expected to be since the cyclone will likely have dissipated by then. Although Willa has weakened to a tropical depression, wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory. Therefore, strong tropical-storm-force winds gusts will still be possible this morning, especially in stronger thunderstorms occurring to the east and south of the center. Key Messages: 1. Storm surge will subside this morning along the coasts of southern Sinaloa and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico. 2. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and west-central Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 24.4N 103.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Willa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-10-24 10:32:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2018 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 240832 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018 0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Willa Forecast Advisory Number 17
2018-10-24 10:32:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 240831 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018 0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 103.6W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 103.6W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 104.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNANT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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