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Summary for Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E (EP4/EP242018)
2018-10-20 11:03:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND OVER THE WEEKEND... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 the center of Twenty-Four-E was located near 15.1, -104.9 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-10-20 11:03:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 200903 CCA TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Advisory Number 1...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Corrected advisory number form 2 to 1 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND OVER THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 104.9W ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 104.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue this morning, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by this afternoon. A motion toward the northwest is forecast on Sunday and Monday, with the tropical cyclone remaining well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later this morning and reach hurricane strength by Sunday night or Monday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Twenty-Four-E Forecast Advisory Number 0
2018-10-20 11:03:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200902 CCA TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER FROM 2 TO 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP242018 0900 UTC SAT OCT 20 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.9W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 105.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 15.9N 106.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 16.5N 107.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 18.0N 109.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 19.2N 109.4W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 21.7N 108.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 104.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Twenty-three-E Graphics
2018-10-19 16:58:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Oct 2018 14:58:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Oct 2018 15:21:54 GMT
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Tropical Depression Twenty-three-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-10-19 16:57:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 191457 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Twenty-Three-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP232018 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 Two distinct areas of low pressure formed late yesterday within a sprawling area of disturbed weather that stretched from Central America westward over the eastern Pacific waters south of Mexico. The easternmost low south of Guatemala is small and has spun up quickly, with deep convection continuing to burst near the center of circulation. Microwave data, first-light visible images, and valuable radar data from Guatemala also show a tight core and increasing convective bands. Maximum winds are set at 30 kt, slightly above last evening's ASCAT pass and a T1.5 Dvorak classification from TAFB, given the system's well-developed structure. The depression is located over warm waters (28-29 degrees Celsius) and in a light-shear environment. These conditions should support further strengthening, and the depression's small size may allow for intensification higher than what is indicated by the intensity models. For this first advisory, the NHC intensity forecast is near the top end of the guidance envelope and levels off the maximum winds in 3-5 days when there could be an increase in shear. Since the low formed recently, the depression's current motion is uncertain. However, microwave fixes indicate that it hasn't moved much since last evening, and the initial motion estimate is slowly west-northwestward, or 300/2 kt. A strong mid-level ridge spanning across the Gulf of Mexico and northern Mexico should steer the cyclone generally westward for the next 3 days or so. After day 3, the ridge is expected to retreat eastward a bit, and the cyclone should begin to turn northwestward between the ridge and another low pressure system to the west. The track models are in good agreement on this general scenario, but there is not agreement on how close the system could get to the coast of Mexico during the forecast period. Therefore, interests along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days. Regardless of how close it gets to the coast, heavy rainfall, with possible life-threatening flash flooding, is expected over portions of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 13.3N 91.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 13.7N 93.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 13.5N 94.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 13.3N 94.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 13.3N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 13.8N 99.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 16.0N 103.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 19.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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