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Tropical Depression Six Public Advisory Number 6
2018-08-31 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 611 WTNT31 KNHC 312032 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Fri Aug 31 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...RAINBANDS AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING THOSE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 24.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Verde Islands of Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 24.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this track with a gradual turn to the west-northwest is expected for the next two or three days. On the forecast track, the depression will be passing just south of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Saturday. The depression should then be moving over the open eastern Atlantic on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from the Cabo Verde Islands is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches possible. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the southern Cabo Verde Islands tonight. Winds should subside on Saturday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-08-31 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 607 FONT11 KNHC 312032 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 24.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Six Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-08-31 22:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 029 WTNT21 KNHC 312032 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO VERDE ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO... FOGO... AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 24.7W AT 31/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 24.7W AT 31/2100Z AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 24.0W FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 14.3N 26.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.9N 29.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.8N 31.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.5N 34.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.0N 39.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 44.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 23.0N 48.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 24.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Graphics
2018-08-28 22:41:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 20:41:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 21:34:01 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162018)
2018-08-28 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 17.5, -112.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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