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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2018-08-28 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 216 WTPZ31 KNHC 282031 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 300 PM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 112.5W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 112.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest thereafter. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or on Wednesday, and a hurricane by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2018-08-28 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 229 FOPZ11 KNHC 282031 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 2100 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 24 59(83) 1(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) ISLA CLARION 50 1 22(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) ISLA CLARION 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 1 22(23) 6(29) 3(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 9(16) 2(18) X(18) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 29(41) 19(60) 1(61) X(61) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 27(36) 4(40) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 15(35) 1(36) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 36(49) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-08-28 18:03:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 314 WTPZ21 KNHC 281602 CCA TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 CORRECTED TO ADD 34-KT WIND RADII FOR 12-HOUR FORECAST THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 111.8W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 111.4W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 111.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Graphics
2018-08-28 16:45:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 14:45:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 28 Aug 2018 15:34:00 GMT
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-28 16:40:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 968 WTPZ41 KNHC 281440 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 Since the previous scatterometer pass around 0430 UTC, the satellite presentation has improved significantly. The cloud pattern now consists of a couple of cyclonically curved convective bands, with the center of the system located on the northeastern edge of a circular area of thunderstorms, as indicated by a GMI microwave pass at 1201 UTC. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.5 and T2.0, respectively, on the Dvorak scale, and on this basis, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression has plenty of time to intensify given that the environmental conditions of warm ocean and light shear are expected to prevail during the next 5 days. The NHC forecast calls for the depression to become a hurricane in about 2 days with additional strengthening thereafter. The forecast is very close to the intensity consensus model, and follows the trend of most of the guidance. Since genesis has just occurred, the initial motion is somewhat uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 9 kt. The depression is currently located on the southwestern edge of a subtropical high, and this flow pattern will continue to steer the depression on the same general track during the next day or two. After that time, the nose of the ridge is expected to amplify, and will force the cyclone to turn toward the west or even west-southwest. This is very consistent with the track guidance, and the NHC forecast lies in between the HCCA corrected consensus model and the other consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.1N 111.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 17.7N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 18.4N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 18.8N 116.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 18.9N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 02/1200Z 17.0N 130.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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