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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-08-15 04:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 541 WTPZ24 KNHC 150237 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142018 0300 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 121.2W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 121.2W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 120.6W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.8N 122.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.7N 125.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 10.8N 127.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.0N 129.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.0N 134.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 13.8N 138.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.6N 142.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 121.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Graphics
2018-08-07 06:37:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 04:37:16 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Aug 2018 04:37:17 GMT
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-07 06:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018 282 WTPZ43 KNHC 070436 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 1000 PM PDT Mon Aug 06 2018 Microwave data from this evening indicate that a small low pressure area has formed within an area of disturbed weather (Invest 94E) that we have been monitoring for several days. The data indicate that the well-defined low is embedded within a growing ball of convection, along with tight banding near the center. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt in accordance with a special 0400 UTC classification from TAFB. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days until the system passes over cooler waters. Most of the guidance is indicating only slow intensification due to northeasterly shear, although some caution should be advised since the depression is fairly small. An uncertain estimate of initial motion is 270/9 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north is expected to steer the system westward for the next day or two, then the forecast gets tricky. The GFS-based guidance is showing Hurricane John weakening the ridge enough to cause a northward or north-northeastward turn of the new tropical cyclone by Thursday, while the ECMWF and its ensemble show the system avoiding any binary interaction with John, and continuing west-northwestward. With such widely divergent guidance, the first forecast will stay close to the consensus, and perhaps later guidance can nail down the specifics of any poleward turn. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0500Z 14.5N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 14.4N 125.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 14.4N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 14.7N 128.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 15.2N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 17.0N 130.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 11/0000Z 19.5N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 12/0000Z 22.0N 132.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-08-07 06:36:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 223 FOPZ13 KNHC 070436 PWSEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018 AT 0500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 41 2(43) 1(44) X(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X 3( 3) 30(33) 26(59) 11(70) 1(71) X(71) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 7(29) X(29) X(29) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 13(28) 3(31) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Depression Thirteen-E (EP3/EP132018)
2018-08-07 06:36:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC, NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 10:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 6 the center of Thirteen-E was located near 14.5, -124.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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