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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-08-28 16:40:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 952 FOPZ11 KNHC 281440 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162018 1500 UTC TUE AUG 28 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 2 57(59) 15(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA CLARION 50 X 12(12) 11(23) X(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 X 13(13) 18(31) 5(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) 35(62) 3(65) X(65) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 1(26) X(26) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 8(33) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 27(40) 3(43) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 24(30) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen-E (EP1/EP162018)
2018-08-28 16:40:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 9:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 the center of Sixteen-E was located near 17.1, -111.8 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Public Advisory Number 1
2018-08-28 16:40:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 928 WTPZ31 KNHC 281440 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 28 2018 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 111.8W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Sixteen-E was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 111.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so with a gradual turn to the west thereafter. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or on Wednesday, and a hurricane by Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Graphics
2018-08-26 10:58:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 26 Aug 2018 08:58:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 26 Aug 2018 09:27:48 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-26 10:42:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 276 WTPZ45 KNHC 260842 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152018 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 26 2018 Various satellite data over the past several hours, including recent ASCAT scatterometer surface-wind data, indicate that the well-defined low pressure area located about 1000 nmi southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become much better organized, and has developed into a tropical depression. A small CDO-like feature has formed over the well-defined center depicted in the ASCAT data, and a recent burst of cold cloud tops of -80C have also developed just west of the center. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on 0458Z and 0558Z ASCAT wind data, which indicated winds of 28-30 kt were located 35-40 nmi west and southwest of the low-level center. The initial motion estimate is 280/10 kt. The depression is expected to remain south of a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge for the next 96 hours, resulting in a general westward motion at a slightly faster forward speed. By day 5, the cyclone is forecast to move into a break in the ridge created by a broad mid-/upper-level trough that is forecast to dig southward out of the northern Pacific between 140W-145W longitude. The forecast track lies essentially down the middle of the guidance envelope, which is just north of the consensus model TVCE and the GFS model, but south of the ECMWF and UKMET models. The HRWF and HMON models were not being available for the TVCE consensus on this cycle, so some significant adjustments to the track in the next advisory may be required. The cyclone has a radius of maximum winds (RMW) of 35-40 nmi based on the recent ASCAT data. The combination of the modest RMW, low vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a very moist mid-level environment, and sea-surface temperatures above 28 deg C, favors steady intensification and even the possibility of rapid strengthening. Since this is the first forecast, however, the intensity forecast is on the conservative side and calls for a climatological increase of one T-number or 20 kt every 24 h for the next 48 hours, which is above all of the intensity guidance except for the Navy COAMPS (CTCI) model. By 96-120 hours, the intensity is leveled off due to possible entrainment of drier air and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 13.3N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.7N 128.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 13.9N 130.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 14.1N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 14.3N 136.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 14.9N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 17.4N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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