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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2021-08-26 10:41:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 08:41:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 08:41:05 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2021-08-26 10:38:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260838 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that convection is increasing near the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E, but it is occurring in bands that are not showing a lot of curvature at this time. Satellite intensity estimates are currently 35 kt from SAB and 30 kt from TAFB, and the CIMSS ADT and satellite consensus techniques are also in the 30-35 kt range. In addition, earlier scatterometer data showed 25-30 kt winds, although there was no data close to the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt. The cyclone is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken this ridge during the next couple of days, with the cyclone moving northwestward to north-northwestward as a result. The track guidance continues to show a motion close to the coast of southwestern Mexico between 48-72 h, and the GFS and Canadian models on the eastern side of the guidance show a landfall in Mexico. The ECMWF model is farther to the left and keeps the system offshore of Mexico, while the UKMET is between these extremes and keeps the center offshore of mainland Mexico before taking the system near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula. The forecast track is similar to the previous track, following the consensus models in keeping the center offshore of mainland Mexico before coming near Baja California Sur. However, there remains above average uncertainty in the track forecast, and interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and in Baja California Sur should closely monitor the progress of the system and potential changes to the forecast. The depression is currently being affected by northeasterly vertical shear, which is likely to persist for another 24 h. After that time, conditions appear favorable for strengthening if the center stays far enough offshore. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous forecast, and it lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The 48-120 h portion of the forecast again has lower than average confidence due to the possibility of land interaction. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday or Saturday night. While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 12.0N 100.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-26 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BEING A TROPICAL STORM... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 12.0, -100.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Advisory Number 3
2021-08-26 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 260837 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST LATER TODAY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 100.6W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 100.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.8N 101.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.9N 102.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 15.2N 104.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 16.5N 105.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 105.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 106.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.5N 108.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 100.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 3
2021-08-26 10:37:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 260837 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 400 AM CDT Thu Aug 26 2021 ...DEPRESSION CLOSE TO BEING A TROPICAL STORM... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 100.6W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 540 MI...875 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. Watches will likely be required for a portion of the coast later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 100.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, with a motion toward the northwest or north-northwest on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to pass near but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and then reach hurricane intensity over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico overnight and on Thursday and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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