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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Graphics
2021-08-26 04:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 02:44:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 26 Aug 2021 02:44:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-26 04:43:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 260243 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 Recent satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that the depression has not become better organized this evening. It is producing a ragged area of convection over the northwestern portion of its circulation, which appears somewhat elongated along an east-west axis. The latest UW-CIMSS objective ADT estimate and subjective 00z Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support an initial intensity of 30 kt for this advisory. The estimated initial motion of the poorly organized depression is an uncertain 280/6 kt. The cyclone is being steered generally westward along the southern extent of a mid-level ridge over the south-central United States. A deep-layer trough over the western U.S. is forecast to weaken the steering ridge during the next couple of days. Thus, the depression is forecast to gain some latitude and move west-northwestward overnight and Thursday, and then northwestward or north-northwestward on Friday and Saturday. Although the track guidance consensus and many GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members still keep the center of the cyclone offshore, there was a pronounced eastward shift in the guidance envelope this cycle. In fact, the GFS and several GEFS members show the system moving inland along the coast of southwestern Mexico in 2-3 days. The official NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the right of the previous one from 48 h onward and lies along the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) aid. This brings the center of the cyclone closer to the coast of southwestern Mexico, but remains offshore and to the left of much of the latest guidance. The extended forecast takes the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur early next week, but overall there is above average uncertainty in the extended portion of the track forecast. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico and in Baja California Sur should closely monitor future updates to the forecast. The depression is located within a favorable thermodynamic environment for strengthening, but moderate to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear should limit its intensification rate in the short-term period. The shear is expected to weaken by Friday, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend over very warm SSTs. There remains a large amount of spread in the intensity guidance beyond 48 h, due to the potential for land interaction earlier in the forecast period. Since the latest NHC track forecast keeps the system offshore, the intensity forecast is much higher than the consensus aids during this period and trends toward the stronger statistical-dynamical guidance. Again, confidence is lower than normal in the day 3-5 forecast. Key Messages: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm on Thursday and be near hurricane intensity by Saturday. While the core of the storm is currently expected to pass near but offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico, strong winds and heavy rainfall, possibly resulting in flash floods and mudslides, could affect portions of that area over the next several days. Interests in this area should closely monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast. 2. The system is forecast to pass near the southern portion of Baja California Sur as a hurricane early next week, bringing a risk of wind and rain impacts to that area. Given the above average uncertainty in the forecast, it is too soon to determine the magnitude and location of these potential impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 11.9N 100.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 12.3N 101.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 13.1N 102.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 14.2N 103.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 15.6N 104.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 17.2N 105.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 18.8N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 21.3N 108.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 23.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2021-08-26 04:42:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 410 FOPZ14 KNHC 260242 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 0300 UTC THU AUG 26 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 20(39) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 20(37) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 23(34) 2(36) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 38(56) 5(61) X(61) X(61) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 22(26) 3(29) 1(30) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 100W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 6(34) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen-E (EP4/EP142021)
2021-08-26 04:42:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE THIS EVENING... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 the center of Fourteen-E was located near 11.9, -100.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Public Advisory Number 2
2021-08-26 04:42:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 191 WTPZ34 KNHC 260242 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen-E Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021 ...DEPRESSION CHANGES LITTLE THIS EVENING... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS OVER THE COMING DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.9N 100.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of the tropical depression. Watches may be required for a portion of the coast on Thursday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen-E was located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 100.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is expected early Thursday, followed by a turn toward the northwest or north-northwest on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to pass near but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico on Friday and Saturday and then approach the southern portion of Baja California Sur on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Thursday and then reach hurricane intensity over the weekend. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Fourteen-E is expected to produce heavy rains over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco beginning Friday. Rainfall totals of 6 to 12 inches are forecast through this weekend with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches possible. As a result, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to begin affecting the southern coast of Mexico overnight and on Thursday and will spread northward to the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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