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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-04 19:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE DEPRESSION... As of 2:00 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Sixteen was located near 12.3, -82.3 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1A
2017-10-04 19:55:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 041755 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...TORRENTIAL RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM THE DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 82.3W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located by aircraft reconnaissance near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 82.3 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible. Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into Honduras late Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Graphics
2017-10-04 16:43:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 14:43:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 04 Oct 2017 14:43:25 GMT
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-10-04 16:41:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 041441 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure in the southwestern Caribbean Sea has become better organized since yesterday and is now a tropical depression. GOES-16 one-minute visible data suggest the center is in between two large curved bands of deep convection, not too far from San Andres Island. The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, somewhat above the TAFB satellite classification, given recent microwave data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the area this afternoon to provide a better estimate. Other than land interaction between 24-36 hours, environmental conditions look conducive for intensification of the depression. A large mid/upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the SW Gulf of Mexico, providing a low-shear environment for the cyclone. Rapid intensification is a possibility over the northwestern Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico while the system is traversing rather warm and deep waters, although it remains to be seen how separate the depression becomes from a larger gyre over central America. The official intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS model, on the high side of the intensity guidance since much of the GFS-based tracks show much more land interaction than the official forecast. The depression is moving slowly northwestward this morning, around a distant mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. However the steering pattern should change quickly tomorrow as the aforementioned mid-tropospheric trough moves across the northwestern Caribbean into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Southerly flow on the eastern side of that trough should cause the cyclone to move much faster to the north-northwest by Friday and northward into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. As the trough moves away, a building ridge over the southwestern Atlantic is forecast to steer the system to the north-northeast or northeast toward the northern Gulf states. There is a fair bit of model spread for now, partly owing to the representation of the Florida Straits trough. The GFS-based guidance seems to over-amplify the trough, which causes the new tropical cyclone to be pulled northwestward longer than most of the rest of the models. Consequently, this forecast is closer to the UKMET and ECMWF models, on the right side of the model consensus, but must be considered a low-confidence prediction at this time. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions and heavy rainfall to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras tonight through Thursday. 2. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. However, it is too early to specify the timing or magnitude of these impacts. Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 12.2N 81.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 12.7N 82.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 13.8N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 06/0000Z 15.3N 84.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 06/1200Z 17.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 09/1200Z 34.5N 82.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2017-10-04 16:39:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 000 FONT11 KNHC 041439 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 3(19) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 8(25) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 14(32) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 14(33) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 12(38) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 10(41) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 13(39) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 10(31) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 7(41) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 5(20) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 3(21) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 3(33) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 1(30) X(30) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUANAJA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 35(36) 7(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) PUERTO CABEZAS 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BLUEFIELDS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN ANDRES 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 2(36) X(36) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 2(13) X(13) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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