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Summary for Tropical Depression Sixteen (AT1/AL162017)
2017-10-04 16:38:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... As of 11:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 4 the center of Sixteen was located near 12.2, -81.9 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Public Advisory Number 1
2017-10-04 16:38:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 041438 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Sixteen Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017 ...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 81.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Nicaragua from Sandy Bay Sirpi northward to the Honduras border. The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla eastward to the border with Nicaragua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua to Punta Castilla Honduras A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula should monitor the progress of the depression. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 81.9 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue today. On the forecast track, the depression should be nearing the coast of Nicaragua early Thursday, move across northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras late Thursday, and emerge into the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 15 to 20 inches are expected across portions of Nicaragua, with isolated maximum amounts of 30 inches possible. Across Costa Rica and Panama, 5 to 10 inches of rain are expected, with isolated maximum totals of around 20 inches possible. Across Honduras, rainfall amounts of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are expected. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to start in the warning area in Nicaragua early on Thursday, and spread into Honduras late Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 1
2017-10-04 16:38:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 000 WTNT21 KNHC 041438 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162017 1500 UTC WED OCT 04 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SANDY BAY SIRPI NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA CASTILLA EASTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH NICARAGUA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS...THE BAY ISLANDS...WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 81.9W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 81.9W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 81.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 12.7N 82.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 13.8N 83.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.3N 84.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.9N 85.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 87.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 29.0N 86.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 34.5N 82.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 81.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression Pilar Graphics
2017-09-25 16:53:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 14:53:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Sep 2017 14:53:41 GMT
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Tropical Depression Pilar Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-09-25 16:44:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 251444 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Pilar Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182017 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 25 2017 Water vapor satellite imagery indicates that strong southwesterly vertical wind shear, along with an abundance of dry mid-/upper-level air, ahead of sharp shortwave trough moving across southern Baja California is taking its toll on Pilar. Convection has weakened considerably and has been displaced to the north and east of the poorly defined low-level circulation center. A blend of Dvorak satellite T-numbers and current intensity (CI) estimates from TAFB and SAB is a consensus T2.0/30 kt, resulting in Pilar being downgraded to a tropical depression. The shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt by 12 h, so continued weakening and degeneration into a remnant low is forecast today, followed by dissipation on Tuesday...if not sooner. The initial motion estimate is 335/06 kt. Pilar and its remnants are expected to continue moving in this general direction, accompanied by a slight decrease in forward speed, for the next day or so until dissipation occurs. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the NOAA-HCCA and TCVA consensus track models. The main hazard associated with Pilar will continue to be heavy rainfall, which could trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, over the states of Nayarit, the southern portion of Sinaloa, and the southwestern portion of Durango during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 22.8N 107.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 23.4N 107.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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